Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 9 mark ($1,809.08), which was emailed and texted. Live marks (Mon, ~7:40 MDT, about ten minutes after the open); daily move is vs Friday's (Oct 9) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. The US bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, so no Treasury yield moved; equities trade a full session. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53). Friday’s official close was $1,818.04 — 0.50% above our mark, because the tape kept rising after it — so on the close basis today is -0.2%.

Baseline note: today’s move is measured against our Oct 9 mark ($1,809.08) — the number that was emailed and texted to you on Friday morning. Friday’s session then kept rising after that mark was taken, and the book closed at $1,818.04, 0.50% above it. That is why the two honest readings of today point in opposite directions, and we print both: against our mark the book is +0.3%, against Friday’s official close -0.2%. The Today column in the position table is on the our-mark basis so it ties to the figure you were sent; the vs-close reading is printed beside it. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 9 mark, with the vs-Friday’s-close reading beneath it wherever the two differ. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Mon, ~7:40 MDT, about ten minutes after the open); daily move is vs Friday's (Oct 9) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. The US bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, so no Treasury yield moved; equities trade a full session.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,814 about ten minutes into the session, +0.3% against our Friday mark and +0.6% for October, with the year at -5.5%. The basis has to come first today, because the two honest readings of this morning point in opposite directions. We marked this book at $1,809.08 at 8:04 Friday morning and the tape kept climbing after that: it closed the day at $1,818.04, 0.50% above our mark. So against the number we actually sent you, the book is +0.3%. Against Friday’s official close — the number on your own screen — it is -0.2%. One is green and one is red, the gap between them is half a percent, and we are not going to pick the flattering one and call it today. Both print here, and the Today column below carries both for every position. One more piece of plumbing worth knowing before you read any rate commentary: the US bond market is closed today for Columbus Day. Equities trade a full session, Treasuries do not trade at all.

The real story this morning is diesel, and it has moved from a refinery problem to a diplomatic one. Ukraine’s drone campaign has now struck more than half of Russia’s refining capacity. Three of Russia’s six largest diesel refineries are either shut or running at roughly a quarter of capacity; Russian diesel output is down close to 30% and gasoline about 20%, which is why Moscow banned fuel exports in the first place. The consequence landed in the US price of diesel rather than the price of crude. The American diesel crack — the refiner’s margin for turning a barrel into diesel — went above $100 a barrel this year for the first time in history: a record $102.20 on August 17, an intraday $108.02 on September 2, a record close of $107.72 on September 10. US distillate inventories are at 30-year lows and the lowest seasonal level on record. Diesel is what moves freight, farm equipment and rail, so that margin is not a trading statistic; it is next quarter’s cost of moving everything.

That is the backdrop to Friday’s announcement. President Trump lifted US sanctions on Russian diesel, permitting imports through April 2027, in return for Russia supplying more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 more in November and a million tonnes thereafter. Russia partially lifted its own export ban effective October 10, releasing 500,000 tons. President Zelensky condemned the agreement, and Ukraine has said plainly that it will not stop striking Russian refineries because of it. Here is the part worth your attention: diesel futures eased on the headline, but crude rose anyway — WTI is around $93.70 and Brent around $106.80, both up roughly 2% from Friday’s settle. The market read a sanctions relief deal as confirmation of how short the world actually is, not as a cure, and it is pricing the risk that the supply being promised keeps getting hit. XLE is the best position in this book on both bases, +1.0% against our mark and +1.8% against Friday’s close, and it is +35.4% since entry — the strongest long-run holding we own.

Because the bond market is shut, there is no Treasury move to report, and we would rather say that than imply one. The 10-year last printed at 5.24% on Friday and the 30-year at 5.60%, and those are where they sit until Tuesday. This is worth being pedantic about for one reason: TMF is an equity-listed fund, so it trades today without the market underneath it repricing. It reads +0.9% against our Friday mark and -0.3% against Friday’s close, and neither of those numbers is a judgement on interest rates — on a holiday they are market-makers pricing a fund whose benchmark is closed, on thin volume. It is -31.3% since entry, which is the number that actually matters, and it remains the problem holding in this book. We will have a real read on the long end tomorrow.

Gold gave a little back and this book owns the leverage on it. Gold is near $4,194 against Friday’s $4,216 settle, off about half a percent, and NUGT is the worst position in the book at -2.5% against our mark and -2.4% against the close. A 2x miners fund turns a 0.5% move in the metal into something several times that, in both directions — that is what it is for, and it is still -45.7% since our entry, which one good Friday did not repair. URA is also softer at -1.4% against our mark and -2.2% against the close, -32.7% since entry; it stays a hold and stays small. Elsewhere the dual basis explains most of what looks strange: ETN reads +0.8% against our Friday mark, -0.7% against Friday’s close and MSTR +2.3% against our Friday mark, +1.0% against Friday’s close, so on our number both are gainers and on your screen ETN is not. ETN is +27.8% since entry and NVDA +23.4%. Nothing in that list is a thesis change.

This week is unusually dense, and most of it lands on this book rather than beside it. Third-quarter earnings season opens tomorrow with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup before the bell, and Taiwan Semiconductor later in the week — the first hard read on whether a quarter with $100 Brent and a 5.2% 10-year actually damaged corporate results. September CPI lands Wednesday, October 14, and after the diesel story above you can see why it is the print that matters most to this book. Then the Fed on October 27–28, where the market has a December hike at roughly 69–85% and October largely priced as a hold. And the midterms on November 3: Democrats lead the generic ballot by about seven to nine points, with forecasters putting the House between 76% and 93% likely to flip and the Senate closer to a coin toss. We are not in the business of predicting elections, and we would distrust anyone selling you a portfolio built on one. But two channels genuinely touch what we own. Friday’s earlier oil reversal came from the President saying the US would not strike Iran before the midterms — which makes the election date itself an oil variable. And a split Congress changes the fiscal path that the long end, and therefore TMF, has to price — a market that is shut today and reopens tomorrow, which is exactly why we are not drawing a rates conclusion from a holiday session. For context and not as a forecast: the S&P has averaged about +15.4% in the year following a midterm since 1950.

Bottom line: SG is at $1,814 a unit — +0.3% against the mark we sent you Friday, -0.2% against Friday’s official close, +0.6% for October and -5.5% for the year. Energy did the work again, gold leverage cost us, and the 3x long bond is parked on a holiday with its market shut. Housekeeping, unchanged from Friday and stated once so the thread stays closed: our review of replacing TMF and NUGT is closed for now and we are holding both positions, and every other position in this book, unchanged. No trade was made at any point during that review. If that changes you will read it here the day it happens, with prices. What to watch: September CPI on Wednesday, the 10-year when it reopens tomorrow, and whether the diesel crack stays triple-digit now that Russian barrels have a legal route to market again.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, October 12, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.