High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 9 mark ($1,705.16), which was emailed and texted. Live marks (Mon, ~7:40 MDT, about ten minutes after the open); daily move is vs Friday's (Oct 9) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. The US bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, so no Treasury yield moved; equities trade a full session. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Friday’s official close was $1,723.57 — 1.08% above our mark, because the rally came after it — so on the close basis today is -1.7%. Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note — read this one before the numbers: today’s move is measured against our Oct 9 mark ($1,705.16), the figure emailed and texted to you on Friday morning. Friday’s session then rallied after that mark, and the book closed at $1,723.57 — 1.08% above our mark. Measured from that close the book is -1.7% right now, so part of what you are reading as today is actually Friday afternoon’s give-back. Both readings are printed for every position below. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 9 mark, with the vs-Friday’s-close reading beneath it wherever the two differ. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Mon, ~7:40 MDT, about ten minutes after the open); daily move is vs Friday's (Oct 9) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. The US bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, so no Treasury yield moved; equities trade a full session.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,694 on the current whole-share model, -0.6% against our Friday mark and -2.2% for October, with 2026 YTD at +3.5%. Part of that loss is not today’s. We marked this book at $1,705.16 at 8:04 Friday morning and the tape rallied after that mark, closing at $1,723.57 — 1.08% above where we marked it. So measured from Friday’s official close the book is -1.7% right now, and measured from the number we actually sent you it is -0.6%. The second is the honest change since you last saw a figure; the first is what your own screen shows. Both are printed, for the book and for every position below. Also worth knowing: the US bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, so the rate backdrop that has driven this book for a fortnight is simply frozen — the 10-year last printed 5.24% on Friday. Equities trade a full session.

Semiconductors are the whole story and SOXL is the instrument. The semiconductor index is down about 2.1% this morning, so a 3x fund on it reads -5.8% against our Friday mark and -5.5% against Friday’s close — far and away the worst position in either book. The trigger is competitive, not macro: reports of real progress at the Chinese memory maker ChangXin, or CXMT, on DDR5 server memory have reignited the fear that Chinese supply is about to arrive in the one part of the chip complex that has been genuinely scarce. That landed on a group already softening, having been pulled off its early-October highs last week by questions about whether AI infrastructure spending is matched by revenue that pays for it. SOXL is -26.4% since entry. We want to be exact about what that is: a 3x daily-reset fund amplifying a hard quarter in its index is the instrument working as designed, not breaking. It stays a hold at the size it is. Taiwan Semiconductor reports later this week and will be the first real test of the competitive claim.

MSTR is the only thing holding this book up, and that deserves a plain warning rather than a victory lap. It is +2.3% against our Friday mark, +1.0% against Friday’s close, with bitcoin roughly flat near $82,500 — so the move is about Strategy itself, not the coin. Because everything around it fell and MSTR did not, it is now 36.8% of this unit, up from 35.7% on Friday, and we did not trade anything to make that happen. That is how a leveraged book quietly concentrates in a drawdown. And the calendar has sharpened: MSCI delivers its decision on removing Strategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes on Thursday, October 16 — four days from now, with any change effective at the November review. If it goes against Strategy, the funds tracking those benchmarks become mechanical sellers of the largest position in this portfolio. That is the single biggest event risk we are carrying, it is concentrated in one name at better than a third of the book, and you should know it is there before Thursday rather than after. On the open item: our review of trimming from four shares to three is closed for now and we are holding four. No trade was made. If MSCI rules against Strategy and the stock gaps, you will hear from us that day, not at the next scheduled update.

The two AI-infrastructure names both fell and the basis gap on one of them is the widest in either book. BE is -1.2% against our Friday mark, -4.0% against Friday’s close — a 2.8-point spread, because it rallied hard after our Friday mark and then gave it all back. NBIS is -2.5% against our Friday mark, -2.9% against Friday’s close. TQQQ is 0.0% against our Friday mark, -0.8% against Friday’s close with the Nasdaq 100 off about 0.4%. The structural point we keep repeating, because a five-line table cannot show it: BE is 15.9% of the unit and NBIS is 12.7%, so about 29% of this book sits in two names that are counterparties to each other. Bloom Energy is supplying over 300 megawatts of solid-oxide fuel cells to Nebius under a ten-year agreement worth up to $2.6 billion, with the first project at 328 megawatts powering the data-centre footprint Nebius is building. Both have been good to us — BE +31.2% and NBIS +24.7% since our fills. But their risk is not independent, and trouble at one would not leave the other untouched. Both stay holds. NBIS reports on October 22 and BE on October 29.

October has gone further negative for this book and we are going to say it without cushioning: -2.2% month to date, against -1.6% on Friday. Safe Growth is +0.6% over the same stretch because it owns energy and gold rather than chips and crypto. That divergence is the two-book design working, not a forecast — but it also means the leveraged book has now handed back the whole of a good month and more in four sessions, which is exactly the behaviour a 3x-levered portfolio is supposed to warn you about in advance. The year is still +3.5%. Nothing here is a thesis change and nothing was traded.

Bottom line: HR is at $1,694 a unit — -0.6% against the number we sent you Friday, -1.7% against Friday’s official close, -2.2% for October and +3.5% for the year. MSTR carried it, semis cost it, and the AI-power pair gave back Friday’s afternoon. What to watch, in order of how much it can move this page: the MSCI decision on Strategy this Thursday, October 16, with MSTR at 36.8% of the book; September CPI on Wednesday; Taiwan Semiconductor’s results later this week against the CXMT competition story; then NBIS on October 22, the Fed on October 27–28 with December priced at roughly 69–85% for a hike, BE on October 29 and the midterms on November 3.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, October 12, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.