Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 8 mark ($1,811.09), which was emailed and texted. Live marks (Fri, ~8:01 MDT, about half an hour after the open); daily move is vs Thursday's (Oct 8) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53). Thursday’s official close was $1,797.81; on that basis today is +0.6%.

Baseline note (Oct 9): today’s move is measured against our Oct 8 mark ($1,811.09) — the number that was emailed and texted to you yesterday morning. Thursday’s session then fell away after that mark was taken, and the book closed at $1,797.81, 0.73% below it. So there are two honest readings of today and we print both: against our mark the book is -0.1%, against Thursday’s official close +0.6%. The Today column in the position table is on the our-mark basis so it ties to the figure you were sent; the vs-close reading is printed beside it. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 8 mark, with the vs-Thursday’s-close reading beneath it wherever the two differ. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Fri, ~8:01 MDT, about half an hour after the open); daily move is vs Thursday's (Oct 8) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,809 about half an hour into the session, -0.1% against our Thursday mark and +0.4% for October, with the year at -5.8%. The basis comes first today, because Thursday’s session moved a long way after our mark went out. We marked this book at $1,811.09 at 8:33 Thursday morning and it closed the day at $1,797.81, 0.73% lower. That leaves two honest answers to what today did: -0.1% measured from our mark, +0.6% measured from Thursday’s official close. We print both, and the Today column below carries both so you are not reconciling anything in your head. The useful read is that Safe Growth is roughly flat across the two sessions while High Risk is down 3.3% on the same basis, and that gap is the whole argument for owning two books instead of one.

Gold is the move of the day and this book owns the leverage on it. Gold is near $4,209 an ounce, up about $52 or 1.25%, and NUGT (+6.0% against our mark, +6.1% against the close) is the best position in either portfolio on either basis. The driver is the Federal Reserve rather than fear. Market-implied odds of a second consecutive hike at the October 27–28 meeting have collapsed to roughly 19% from about 51% a week ago, after September payrolls came in at just 29,000 jobs. A Fed that holds instead of hiking lowers the cost of owning an asset that pays you nothing, and central bank buying has continued underneath all of it. We are not going to dress this up: NUGT is still -44.3% since our entry. One very good session in a 2x miners fund does not retire that number.

Oil reversed for the first time in weeks, and the reason is political rather than physical. President Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, and crude sold off on it — WTI back to about $90.90 and Brent to roughly $103.20, down about 0.6% and 1.1%. XLE is +0.5% against Thursday’s close and remains +34.0% since entry, the strongest long-run holding in the book. The bill for the last three weeks of oil is now arriving in other companies’ results, though: Delta Air Lines missed its quarter this morning with fuel costs up 62% year over year, and raised its annual fuel bill guidance by six billion dollars. That is the machinery by which a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz turns into an inflation print the Fed has to answer, and it is why we keep leading with energy even on a day energy fell.

The long end still refuses to help. The 10-year is around 5.26%, within a few basis points of the 24-year high it set this week, and the 30-year is near 5.63% after closing at 5.60%. TMF is a good illustration of why we print two bases: it reads +1.0% against our Thursday mark and -0.9% against Thursday’s close, so on our number it looks like a gainer and on your screen it looks like a loser. It is -31.9% since entry either way. The labour data is the live problem. September payrolls were weak at 29,000, but initial jobless claims released this morning came in at 197,000 for the week ending October 3 — a figure that describes a tight labour market with layoffs near historic lows. Those two readings cannot both be right, and the Fed has to choose between them. September CPI on October 14 is the next real input, and it matters more to this book than any single holding in it.

The rest of the portfolio is quiet and the dual basis explains most of what looks odd. Measured against Thursday’s close, INDA (+0.9%), MSTR (+0.6%), XLE (+0.5%), PPA (+0.3%), NVDA (+0.3%), EWW (+0.1%) and URA (+0.1%) are all slightly higher, and only TMF and ETN are lower. Measured against our Thursday mark, ETN (-1.6%), URA (-1.7%), EWW (-1.2%) and NVDA (-2.4%) read negative instead, because our mark was taken before Thursday afternoon went away. Nothing in that list is a thesis change. ETN is still +26.8% since entry and NVDA +25.0%; URA stays a hold and stays small.

Bottom line: SG is down at $1,809 a unit, +0.4% for October and -5.8% for the year, and +0.6% if you measure from Thursday’s close. Gold leverage did the work, energy held after three weeks of carrying the book, and the 3x long bond is still the problem holding. One piece of housekeeping we owe you, because we raised it in three consecutive updates: our review of replacing TMF and NUGT is closed for now and we are holding both positions, and every other position in this book, unchanged. No trade was made at any point during that review. If that changes you will read it here the day it happens, with prices. What to watch: September CPI on October 14, the 30-year against 5.70%, and whether October hike odds stay near 19% or start drifting back up.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, October 9, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.