High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 8 mark ($1,762.80), which was emailed and texted. Live marks (Fri, ~8:01 MDT, about half an hour after the open); daily move is vs Thursday's (Oct 8) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Thursday’s official close was $1,704.37 — 3.31% below our mark, because the selloff came after it — so on the close basis today is 0.0%. Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Oct 9) — read this one before the numbers: today’s move is measured against our Oct 8 mark ($1,762.80), the figure emailed and texted to you yesterday morning. An AI-led selloff took hold in Thursday’s afternoon, after that mark, and the book closed at $1,704.37 — 3.31% below our mark. Measured from that close the book is 0.0% right now. So -3.3% is the honest change since you last saw a number, but it is almost entirely Thursday afternoon’s move, not Friday morning’s. Both readings are printed for every position below. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 8 mark, with the vs-Thursday’s-close reading beneath it wherever the two differ. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Fri, ~8:01 MDT, about half an hour after the open); daily move is vs Thursday's (Oct 8) mark, the one that was emailed and texted to you; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,705 on the current whole-share model, -3.3% against our Thursday mark and -1.6% for October, with 2026 YTD at +4.2%. That -3.3% needs explaining before anything else, because almost none of it happened today. We marked this book at $1,762.80 at 8:33 Thursday morning. An AI-led selloff took hold in the afternoon, after our mark, and the book closed at $1,704.37. Measured from that close, High Risk is 0.0% right now — flat. So the loss is real, it is the first number you are seeing it in, and it is Thursday afternoon’s loss rather than Friday morning’s. We could have led with the flat number and looked better. Both are printed, for the book and for every position below.

SOXL is where it landed. Our Thursday mark caught it at $154.37; it closed at $142.52, down about 7.7% in the hours after we marked it, and it is $140.26 now. That is -9.1% against our mark and -1.6% against the close, and it is the only position here meaningfully lower today. The context is much larger than one afternoon: the semiconductor index is down as much as 29% from the record it set in late June, and the broad chip complex has lost roughly $2.1 trillion in market value since June 22, a median decline of about 21% across some sixty names. Weak AI guidance from Broadcom, hundred-dollar Brent, a 10-year above 5.25% and intensifying Chinese competition all landed in the same quarter. A 3x fund on that index does exactly what this one did, and that is the instrument behaving correctly, not breaking. It stays a hold at the size it is.

What stopped it this morning was a revenue headline, not a chip. Bloomberg reported that OpenAI expects to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualised revenue by year end, which speaks directly to the question driving the whole complex lower — whether the capital being spent on AI is matched by demand that actually pays. The Nasdaq is up about 0.3% on it. TQQQ is -3.1% against our Thursday mark, +0.5% against Thursday’s close; NBIS is -4.4% against our Thursday mark, +0.2% against Thursday’s close; BE is -3.5% against our Thursday mark, -0.1% against Thursday’s close. Read those pairs carefully, because they are the same story as SOXL: hit hard after our mark, roughly flat since the close. One revenue report does not repair a two-trillion-dollar drawdown, and we would rather you hold it as a sentiment repair than a fundamental one.

There is a concentration in this book we should name properly, because the allocation table cannot show it. BE is 16.0% of the unit and NBIS is 12.9%, so about 29% sits in two AI-infrastructure names — and those two are counterparties to each other. In late September Bloom Energy signed a ten-year fuel-cell agreement with Nebius worth up to $2.6 billion in fees, under which BE installs and operates the power systems for the data-centre footprint NBIS is building. Both holdings have been good to us, BE +32.9% and NBIS +27.8% since our fills. But that contract means trouble at one would not leave the other untouched, and at least one short seller has published against the project specifically. Both stay holds. We are flagging the link because a reader studying a five-line table would reasonably assume these are two independent bets, and they are not.

MSTR is +0.1% against our Thursday mark, +0.6% against Thursday’s close, with bitcoin near $82,700, and it is the one position that did not fall after our mark. That has a consequence worth stating: because everything around it dropped and MSTR did not, it is now 35.7% of this unit, up from 34.5% yesterday. The concentration increased without us trading anything, which is how a leveraged book quietly gets more concentrated in a drawdown. The calendar item has not moved either. MSCI’s final decision on removing Strategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes is still due this month, with any change effective in November, and if it goes through the funds tracking those benchmarks become forced sellers. On the open item: our review of trimming from four shares to three is closed for now and we are holding four. No trade was made. If MSCI rules against Strategy and the stock gaps on it, you will hear from us that day rather than at the next scheduled update.

Bottom line: HR is at $1,705 a unit — -3.3% against the number we sent you Thursday, 0.0% against Thursday’s close, -1.6% for October and +4.2% for the year. October has turned negative for this book, against +1.7% yesterday, and that deserves to be said plainly rather than framed: a 3x-levered portfolio can hand back most of a good month in two sessions, and this one just did. Safe Growth is -0.1% over the same stretch because it owns gold and energy instead of chips and crypto. That is the two-book design doing its job, not a forecast. What to watch: the MSCI decision on Strategy this month, BE earnings on October 29, and September CPI on October 14 — the one input that moves the discount rate under every position on this page.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, October 9, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.