Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 6 mark ($1,864); the Oct 6 row was archived but not emailed. Live marks (Wed, ~8:05 MDT, about 35 minutes after the open); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Oct 6) mark, which was built but not emailed; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53).

Baseline note (Oct 7): today’s move is measured against our Oct 6 mark ($1,864). That Oct 6 update was built and archived but never emailed, so the last note in your inbox was Oct 5 ($1,828) — against that Oct 5 unit the book is -1.1% over two sessions. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 6 mark. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Wed, ~8:05 MDT, about 35 minutes after the open); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Oct 6) mark, which was built but not emailed; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,807 about thirty-five minutes into the session, -3.1% against our Tuesday mark and +0.3% for October. Before anything else, the arithmetic you are owed: yesterday’s update was built and archived but never sent, so the last note in your inbox was Monday’s. Measured against that Oct 5 unit of $1,828 the book is -1.1% over two sessions, and measured against yesterday’s official closing prices it is -2.7%. The -3.1% headline is the largest of the three because our Tuesday mark was taken mid-morning, near that day’s best levels. All three are real; we are showing you all three rather than picking the flattering one. All fourteen positions across both books are lower.

This is yesterday’s mechanism running backwards, and it took less than twenty-four hours. Iran has stepped up its attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz precisely as flows recovered toward prewar levels — UK Maritime Trade Operations has logged nine attacks in the waterway already this month, roughly half of what it reported for all of September, with close to twenty commercial ships hit in the past month across Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the coast of Oman. Add a tropical storm threatening Gulf of Mexico platforms and the supply recovery we wrote about on Tuesday is back in question: WTI is near $90 and Brent is back above $101. When the oil input turns, the long end turns with it. The 10-year is back at 5.32% to 5.35%, giving up Tuesday’s relief entirely, and the 30-year is at 5.70%, its highest since 2002. Equities came off Tuesday’s record closes on that: Dow about -1.0%, S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.8%, Russell -1.0%.

The AI-power complex handed back most of Tuesday’s nuclear-deal pop. URA (-4.6%) is the clearest example: nothing changed about Google’s twenty-year agreement with Constellation overnight, the contracted megawatts are still contracted, and the position still fell. ETN (-3.8%) is down with no company-specific headline behind it — the Bank of America Buy and the 41% Electrical Americas order growth we cited Tuesday are both still on the page. What is moving these names is the multiple, not the order book. Vertiv, the purest public comparable, fell about 11% on the same trade: investors taking profits in premium AI-infrastructure names whose valuations already assume years of data-center growth, in a session where the discount rate went the wrong way. PPA (-2.1%) and NVDA (-1.1%) are lower on the same impulse, EWW (-1.1%) and INDA (-1.9%) are down with the broad risk-off, and XLE (-0.2%) is the one position essentially flat, which is exactly what you want energy to do on a day crude is up and everything else is down. Strong hold.

NUGT (-6.9%) is the worst position in the book and the watch badge is doing its job. Gold fell about 1.6% to roughly $4,121 as yields rose ahead of the Fed minutes, and a 2x miners fund turns that into what you see on the scoreboard. We have said for a month that gold has been trading as a rate asset rather than a fear asset, and this is the second half of that sentence: when real yields back up, the metal goes down even with tankers under attack in Hormuz. The position is -49.2% since entry and it is the single largest drag on this book’s year.

TMF (-3.0%) is lower on the yield move, and we want to close the loop on what we told you Tuesday rather than let it slide. We wrote that a one-day easing in the 10-year off a 24-year high, caused by oil falling, was not a rate-cut path and did not change the argument for moving out of a 3x duration fund. That reprieve lasted exactly one session. Our recommendation to move TMF into short-term Treasuries and NUGT into an unleveraged gold-miner fund went to our team on Friday and is still pending; no trade has been made, and you will see the decision here the day it is made, with prices. Both keep the watch badge. MSTR (-6.2%) is the other large drag — bitcoin is near $83,200, down about 4% on the day, and after failing at $87,000 repeatedly it has now broken the other way. The trim question in the High Risk book is with our team for the same reason.

Bottom line: SG is down 3.1% against Tuesday’s mark, -1.1% against the Oct 5 unit you last received, and +0.3% for October with the year at -5.9%. Oil and the Strait of Hormuz are still running this book, and for one session on Tuesday they ran our way. The event is today, not tomorrow: the Fed’s September minutes land at 2:00pm Eastern, after this mark, and the market wants to know how close that 12-0 vote actually was. Then consumer sentiment Friday and CPI on October 14. Watch the 10-year.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.