High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 6 mark ($1,891); the Oct 6 row was archived but not emailed. Live marks (Wed, ~8:05 MDT, about 35 minutes after the open); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Oct 6) mark, which was built but not emailed; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Oct 7): today’s move is measured against our Oct 6 mark ($1,891). That Oct 6 update was built and archived but never emailed, so the last note in your inbox was Oct 5 ($1,832) — against that Oct 5 unit the book is -2.2% over two sessions. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 6 mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Wed, ~8:05 MDT, about 35 minutes after the open); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Oct 6) mark, which was built but not emailed; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,793 on the current whole-share model, -5.2% against our Tuesday mark and +3.4% for October, with 2026 YTD at +9.5%, still positive on the year, though October has gone from +9.1% to +3.4% in a single morning. Same disclosure as the other book, and it matters more here because the moves are bigger: yesterday’s update was built but never emailed, so against the Oct 5 unit you actually received ($1,832) the book is -2.2% over two sessions, and against yesterday’s official closing prices it is -4.1%. All five positions are lower. One morning took back most of what Tuesday handed over, which is the deal you sign up for in a book built this way.

SOXL (-8.3%) is the worst of it, and the number needs unpacking rather than dramatising. Measured from yesterday’s official close it is -6.5%; the rest of the gap is that our Tuesday mark caught the fund near the high of a strong morning. The semiconductor index is down roughly two percent today, so this is a 3x fund doing precisely what a 3x fund does to a normal down day in chips. There is no new chip headline, no guidance cut, no supply story. TQQQ (-3.5%) is the same trade on the Nasdaq. We have written all month that these two positions trade on the discount rate far more than on semiconductor news, and a 10-year back at 5.35% with the 30-year at a 2002 high is that sentence being collected on. Both holds, same trigger.

MSTR (-6.2%) is the position that concerns us most, and not because of today’s percentage. Bitcoin is near $83,200, down about 4%, and the $87,000 level it failed at repeatedly over the past week has now resolved downward rather than upward. The position is still +65.3% since our fill, so this is a good trade giving some back, not a broken one. But it is about 35% of this book, and the capital structure underneath it is doing something we do not like: Strategy spent $176.3 million buying back its STRC preferred between September 28 and October 4 while adding just 334 coins, and STRC is still trading below its $100 par. When the preferred trades under par the company’s cheapest funding route stalls, and the pressure moves to the common. We are not panicking and we are not adding. The trim recommendation went to our team Friday and is still pending; the reason is position size, not a view on bitcoin.

NBIS (-5.0%) is lower after leading the book on Tuesday, and the two things we flagged then are the two things to keep flagging. The bull case is intact and is real product: the Inferize acquisition folded into Token Factory, the Beam agentic open model, and the 17% to 21% GPU rental price increase now sitting in the run rate. The counterweight is that insider selling has continued — fresh disclosed executive sales dated October 5 on top of roughly $19 million over the prior week — against a valuation that assumes a great deal. A name up close to 180% on the year moves like this in both directions, and today it moved in the other one. Strong hold, with that caveat stated as plainly as we can state it.

BE (-1.8%) is the best-performing position in the book today, which on a day like this means it fell the least, and there is a point in that. Bloom came off the watch list it went on after the Oracle force majeure notice — that change was made in Tuesday’s update, which never reached you, so we are repeating it here. The basis: Barclays lifted its target to $308 from $276, RBC reiterated Outperform at $335, and the 2026 Virginia Energy Plan treats fuel cells as a faster-to-deploy alternative to conventional generation in the largest data-center market in the world. It is back to a straight hold. What we still want and do not have is an order to point at.

Bottom line: HR is down 5.2% against Tuesday’s mark, -2.2% against the Oct 5 unit you last received, +3.4% for October and +9.5% for the year. Yields went back to a 24-year high because Iran resumed attacking tankers, and a book that is a third leveraged index funds paid for it inside one morning. Nothing in the positions broke; the discount rate moved. The Fed’s September minutes land at 2:00pm Eastern today, after this mark, and that is the next thing that can move the 10-year in either direction. Then consumer sentiment Friday and CPI on October 14. The MSTR trim is with our team; you will see it here when it is made.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.