Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs the Oct 5 published unit ($1,828). Live marks (Tue, ~9:45 MDT, about two hours after the open); daily move is vs Monday's (Oct 5) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53).

Baseline note (Oct 6): today’s move is measured against the Oct 5 published update ($1,828). October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Oct 5 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Tue, ~9:45 MDT, about two hours after the open); daily move is vs Monday's (Oct 5) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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Safe Growth is marked at $1,864 about two hours into the session, +2.0% versus Monday's published update and +3.4% for October. This one is broad and it is today, not a carryover: all fourteen positions across both books are higher, the S&P is up about 0.9%, the Nasdaq 0.8% and the Dow 0.7%, and for the first morning in weeks the bond market is helping rather than hurting. The 10-year touched 5.35% on Monday, a two-decade high, and has eased back toward 5.27% to 5.30% today with the 30-year near 5.66% and the two-year lower; the reason is oil, which is sliding, and when the inflation input falls the long end finally gets permission to rally. That is the whole mechanism behind this morning: the same discount rate that took a bite out of this book for three weeks ran the other way for a few hours.

The headline story, and the one that actually changes something we own, is that Google signed a twenty-year nuclear power agreement with Constellation Energy this morning. The structure is worth reading closely: rather than build anything new, Constellation will spend more than $4.3 billion upgrading eleven reactors it already owns in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey to squeeze out 890 megawatts of additional capacity for the PJM grid, with the first increment due in 2028, alongside a separate fifteen-year agreement to supply another 2,700 megawatts. Roughly 3.6 gigawatts in total, contracted for two decades. The market treated it as a repricing of the entire nuclear complex: Constellation closed up about 14%, Vistra 11%, Cameco 7%. URA (+5.6%) is the best position in this book on that read, and it is the position in Safe Growth we have been most patient with. The point for us is not the single contract. It is that the AI buildout has stopped talking about electricity as a forecast and started signing twenty-year contracts for physical megawatts, which is the thesis URA, ETN and PPA were bought on.

ETN (+1.4%) is in the same current and got its own note: Bank of America's Andrew Obin reiterated a Buy with a $490 target this week on channel checks showing data centers and utilities driving order books, with twelve-month rolling orders up 41% in Electrical Americas, 33% in Electrical Global and 17% in Aerospace. Those are multi-year commitments that convert to revenue slowly, which is exactly why the stock trades on the discount rate in the meantime and why it gave back more than a percent on Monday afternoon before recovering it all today. NVDA (+1.9%) is higher and PPA (+0.3%) higher. EWW (+2.4%) continues its bounce off a fourth straight losing month and INDA (+0.7%) is higher. NUGT (+4.2%) is up with gold near $4,150, though more than half of that came Monday afternoon rather than today, and the watch badge stays on: gold has traded as a rate asset for a month, and a one-day yield reprieve does not change the position's math.

Oil is the other side of today's trade and it is genuinely better news on supply. Crude is lower again, WTI near $88 and Brent around $100, on confirmation that Gulf exports are recovering faster than the market assumed: satellite data showed 12.5 million barrels loaded onto nine tankers at the Yanbu and Muajjiz terminals between Saturday and Monday, flows through the Strait of Hormuz have averaged 13.2 million barrels a day over the past week, about 77% of pre-war levels, and the G7 signalled it will release strategic stocks. Trump said oil prices will "come tumbling down" once the war ends, while blaming Democrats and Ukraine rather than Iran for the price at the pump, which tells you how the fuel-cost politics are landing five weeks from the midterms. The caveat belongs in the same breath: CNBC's reporting is explicit that these rebounding flows are precisely what stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks would target next, and nothing has been settled diplomatically. XLE (+1.5%) is higher even with crude down, tracking the broad energy-equity rally rather than the barrel, and stays a strong hold.

TMF (+1.9%) is higher on the yield relief, and we want to be straight with you about it rather than let one good morning rewrite the argument. Our recommendation to move TMF into short-term Treasuries, and NUGT into an unleveraged gold-miner fund, went to our team on Friday and is still pending. Nothing today changes it. The 10-year easing five basis points off a 24-year high because oil fell is not the same as a rate-cut path, the long end still carries a global term-premium problem, and a 3x duration fund needs a sustained move, not a reprieve. Both positions keep the watch badge. No trade has been made; you will see the decision here the day it is made, with prices.

Bottom line: SG is up 2.0% against Monday's update and +3.4% for October. Google bought twenty years of nuclear power and repriced the whole complex, oil fell on a real Gulf supply recovery, and the long end rallied for the first time in weeks because of it. The week's main event is tomorrow: the Fed's September minutes, where the market will look for how close the 12-0 vote actually was, with roughly 78% odds on a hold at the next meeting and December still the base case for one more hike. Then consumer sentiment Friday and CPI on October 14. Watch the 10-year; it is still the only number that matters for this book.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.