High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs the Oct 5 published unit ($1,832). Live marks (Tue, ~9:45 MDT, about two hours after the open); daily move is vs Monday's (Oct 5) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Oct 6): today’s move is measured against the Oct 5 published update ($1,832). October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Oct 5 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Tue, ~9:45 MDT, about two hours after the open); daily move is vs Monday's (Oct 5) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,891 on the current whole-share model, +3.2% versus Monday's published update and +9.1% for October, with 2026 YTD at +15.6%, a twelfth straight positive print for the year. All five positions are higher and the move is today's, not a carryover from Monday afternoon. The backdrop is the one thing this book has wanted for a month: the 10-year touched 5.35% Monday, a two-decade high, and eased back toward 5.27% to 5.30% today as oil slid, with the 30-year near 5.66%. For a book that is a third 3x index funds, that is the discount rate stepping off its throat for a session.

NBIS (+7.0%) leads the book and it earned it on company news, though the timing deserves honesty: the stock fell a little on Monday afternoon after our mark and the entire gain has come today. Two things landed Monday. Nebius acquired Inferize, an inference-optimization startup, folding it into the Token Factory business, which is a direct play at the cost side of serving models rather than training them. Then it released Beam, an agentic open model with 501 billion total parameters and 23 billion active, which is a credibility move for a company that until recently was mostly a landlord renting GPUs. Add the 17% to 21% GPU rental price increase that took effect last week and now sits in the run rate, and the story is a compute provider with pricing power moving up the stack. Strong hold. The honest counterweight, and we would rather say it than have you read it elsewhere: executives sold roughly $19 million of stock over the past week, and the valuation is demanding against the revenue base.

BE (+2.5%) is the other genuine mover, and for once it is not an Oracle headline. Barclays raised its target to $308 from $276 on Friday, RBC reiterated Outperform at $335, and the specific catalyst both analysts point at is the 2026 Virginia Energy Plan, released last week, which treats fuel cells as a cleaner and faster-to-deploy alternative to conventional generation. That matters more than a price target: Virginia is the largest data-center market in the world, and a state energy plan naming the technology is the kind of policy cover that turns pilot projects into orders. It also rhymes with what Google did this morning in signing twenty years of nuclear capacity. The constraint on AI is electricity, and the people spending the money are now contracting for it in decades rather than quarters. BE comes off the watch list it went on after the Oracle force majeure notice, back to a straight hold, with no new order to point to yet and that being the thing we still want to see.

MSTR (+1.8%) is higher and remains the concentration problem at about 35% of the book. Bitcoin is near $86,500 and has now failed at the $87,000 level repeatedly over several sessions, including after Strategy's latest purchase was disclosed, which is a reasonable definition of a stall rather than a breakout. Three sell-side targets were cut this week, Citi to $113,000, Standard Chartered to $100,000 and Bernstein to $125,000, all still well above spot but all moving the same direction, while TD Cowen published a $132,750 target for 2028. Strategy holds about 848,000 coins after buying 334 more between October 1 and 4. We are not adding and we are not panicking; the trim question went to our team Friday and is still pending, and the reason it keeps coming up is arithmetic, not a view on bitcoin. A third of this book in one position means a bad week in that name is a bad week in the book no matter what the other four do.

SOXL (+3.8%) and TQQQ (+3.4%) are both higher, and it is worth being precise: the semiconductor index is up only about 0.4% today and the Nasdaq 0.8%, so these are 3x funds multiplying a modest tape, with roughly half of SOXL's gain against our mark coming Monday afternoon. There is no new chip catalyst behind it. That is fine, and it is the point we have made all month: these positions trade on the discount rate far more than on any single semiconductor headline, which is why a morning of falling yields does more for them than most earnings reports. Both holds, same trigger, the 10-year.

Bottom line: HR is up 3.2% against Monday's update, +9.1% for October and +15.6% for the year. Yields eased off a 24-year high because oil fell, and a leveraged book got the benefit; Nebius delivered real product news; Bloom got policy cover from Virginia and comes off watch. Bitcoin stalling under $87,000 is the one thing not working, and it happens to be the largest position. Tomorrow brings the Fed's September minutes, the first look at how unanimous that 12-0 vote really was. Then consumer sentiment Friday and CPI on October 14. The trim decision on MSTR is with our team; you will see it here when it is made.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.