Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Oct 2 published unit ($1,848). Live marks (Mon, ~8:30 MDT, about an hour after the open); daily move is vs Friday's (Oct 2) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53).

Baseline note (Oct 5): today’s move is measured against the Oct 2 published update ($1,848). October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Oct 2 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Mon, ~8:30 MDT, about an hour after the open); daily move is vs Friday's (Oct 2) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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Safe Growth is marked at $1,828 about an hour into the session, -1.1% versus Friday's published update and +1.4% for October. Most of that move happened Friday afternoon, after our update went out, and it is worth being exact about what happened. The jobs miss took the October hike off the table and the 10-year fell to 5.18% at the open; by the close it was back at 5.28%, and this morning it is 5.30% with the 30-year at 5.63%. The Nasdaq still closed up 1.2% and the S&P 0.7%, so the equity market and the bond market walked away from the same report with opposite conclusions. The open rally in the names we own faded with the bond market: ETN (-2.5%) was up more than 4% at our Friday mark and closed down a quarter percent on the day, TMF (-3.4%) gave back its whole bounce and is lower again this morning, and MSTR (-2.7%) printed $168.64 at our mark and closed at $160.01. Those three are the day's number. Nothing in the book had company news behind it; the discount rate went up again and the long-duration positions paid for it.

Why long rates would not fall on a weak jobs report is the question that matters for this book, and the answer this week is not in Washington. France's 10-year yield is just under 5% and the gap over German Bunds hit 150 basis points on Friday, the widest since the 2011 euro debt crisis, as the Lecornu government tries to push a 54 billion euro budget through a National Assembly with no majority and debt headed to about 122% of GDP next year. The euro fell to a 17-month low this morning and Commerzbank's rates strategist called the dynamics "increasingly concerning and somewhat reminiscent of a sovereign debt crisis." Add a US quarter that produced the biggest rise in long yields this century, and you have a global term-premium problem that a 29,000 payroll print does not fix. This morning's ISM services report made the bond market's point for it: the headline slipped to 54.9 from 55.4, but the prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, the 112th straight month of rising prices paid, with respondents citing diesel freight costs and crude-driven input prices by name. October hike odds are about 18%, down from 70% a week earlier, and a December hike is still the base case; what the market will not do is pay up for 30-year paper while two of the three largest Western borrowers are arguing over budgets. That is the whole case against TMF, and it is why the replacement proposal we told you about Friday went to our team that afternoon as promised: we have recommended moving TMF into short-term Treasuries, which keeps the cash and the yield without the three-times duration bet, and NUGT (-3.7%), down nearly half since entry with gold at $4,180 and trading as a rate asset, is on the same review with an unleveraged gold-miner fund as the proposed replacement. Both positions carry a watch badge today. No trade has been made; the decision is pending, and you will see it here the day it is made, with prices.

The Middle East got worse over the weekend, and oil split in two. Houthi forces hit Aramco's refinery south of Riyadh with ballistic missiles and drones Saturday night, with fires visible and firefighters on scene per AFP, then claimed a second strike on the Khurais field Sunday, while Saudi jets flew 26 strikes on Sanaa. On Sunday Iran's parliament speaker said the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until seven conditions are met and that "the era of wasting time and dictating unilateral demands is over"; the UK maritime agency reported another tanker struck by an unidentified projectile. On the US side, Trump told TIME that strikes could resume after the midterms if there is no deal, that "we're stocking up at levels we've never done before," and said Friday that Iran is "ready to fold up" and the war will be won "right after the election"; a third carrier group, the Theodore Roosevelt, is due in the region in November. The oil market is pricing that as two different problems. Brent, the seaborne benchmark, is about $102 and Abu Dhabi's Murban grade is $110, while WTI is $89.75, down 1.5% this morning, a spread of more than $10 a barrel that reflects tanker shortages, war-risk insurance and freight rates at extraordinary levels on Gulf crude specifically. American crude is cheap because it does not have to cross the strait; the diesel that refineries make from it is still $6.34 a gallon and gasoline $4.37. XLE (+1.2%) is higher against the mark on that split and stays a strong hold: the US-weighted producers in the fund sell at WTI, but the war premium that Brent carries is what keeps the floor under every barrel.

The rest of the book is quieter. EWW (+1.6%) is the best position in the book, bouncing with Mexican stocks after a fourth straight losing month in September, even with the peso at 18.24 to the dollar; INDA (-0.3%) is lower. NVDA (+0.8%) is higher after closing Friday at a record $237.88 with the $150 billion buyback behind it and Baird naming it a top 2026 pick this morning; the rest of the chip complex is slightly lower, Micron and AMD both down under 1%, so this is Nvidia holding its own rather than a sector move. URA (-0.3%) and PPA (-0.3%) are lower on no news. Friday's close was strong across the indexes, S&P 7,722.72, Nasdaq 27,190.86, Dow 51,176.96, and an hour into Monday the Dow is lower while the S&P is up about 0.4% and the Nasdaq about 0.7%. One strategist line worth keeping, from Sean McLaughlin at All Star Charts: "The market has had every reason to sell off, and it hasn't sold off yet, and to me it feels like it's running out of time."

Bottom line: SG is down 1.1% against Friday's update and +1.4% for October. The jobs miss took the October hike off the table and the long end sold off anyway, because the bond market is pricing France and term premium, not the Fed, and that is the argument behind the TMF and NUGT proposals now in front of our team. Oil split into a cheap American barrel and an expensive Gulf one over a weekend that saw Aramco hit twice. This week: Williams and Bowman speak this afternoon, the Fed's September minutes land Wednesday, consumer sentiment Friday, then CPI on October 14 and the start of third-quarter earnings. Watch the 10-year; it is still the only number that matters for this book.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, October 5, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.