High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Oct 2 published unit ($1,850). Live marks (Mon, ~8:30 MDT, about an hour after the open); daily move is vs Friday's (Oct 2) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Oct 5): today’s move is measured against the Oct 2 published update ($1,850). October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Oct 2 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Mon, ~8:30 MDT, about an hour after the open); daily move is vs Friday's (Oct 2) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,832 on the current whole-share model, -0.9% versus Friday's published update and +5.7% for October, with 2026 YTD at +12.0%, an eleventh straight positive print for the year. Most of today's move happened Friday afternoon, after the update went out, and one position explains nearly all of it. MSTR (-2.7%), at roughly 36% of this book, printed $168.64 at our Friday mark and closed the day at $160.01: bitcoin stalled at $86,000, the spot ETFs took in little Friday after Thursday's $102.7 million, and the 7% opening pop went away by the bell. The stock is up about 2.5% this morning at $164 and bitcoin is $86,100, so the number you see against the mark is Friday's fade, not a new selloff. The weekend news was constructive: Strategy bought 334 more coins for $28.7 million between October 1 and 4 at an average of $85,839, taking holdings to about 848,000 bitcoin at a $75,441 average cost, kept the full $1 billion stock buyback authorization in place, and the spot ETFs finished a third straight week of net inflows. Bitcoin has gained roughly 12% over three weeks; resistance is $87,600 then $90,000, support $85,000. Hold, concentration flag stays at 36%, and the trim question went to our team Friday afternoon alongside the Safe Growth proposals; no decision yet.

The reason the rest of the book did not hold Friday's open is the bond market, and it is the same story as Safe Growth's. The 10-year fell to 5.18% on the jobs miss and closed at 5.28%; this morning it is 5.30% with the 30-year at 5.63%, and the ISM services prices index printed 74.0 at 10am, the highest since July 2022. The Nasdaq still closed up 1.2% and the S&P 0.7%, so stocks and bonds read the same report in opposite directions. The driver of the long end this week is not the Fed, where October hike odds are about 18% and December is still the base case; it is France, where the 10-year is near 5%, the spread over German Bunds hit 150 basis points Friday, the widest since the 2011 euro crisis, the euro is at a 17-month low and Commerzbank is using the phrase "reminiscent of a sovereign debt crisis." For a book that is one-third 3x index funds, a global term-premium problem is a discount-rate problem no matter where it starts. TQQQ (+1.6%) is higher against the mark on the Nasdaq's Friday close and a Nasdaq up about 0.7% an hour into Monday. SOXL (-1.3%) is lower: the semiconductor index is down about 0.4% this morning with Micron and AMD both lower by under 1%, even as Stifel raised its AMD target to $700 and Baird named Nvidia and Micron its top 2026 picks. That is digestion after a 10% day for the fund, not a change in the story, and the hold stands with the same trigger we have used all month: the 10-year, not the chip news.

BE (+0.4%) is higher at about $289 after a second quiet session, no new Oracle or Project Jupiter news and no new order. It is doing what we said it would: trading with the discount rate until the next contract lands. Hold on watch. NBIS (-0.4%) is lower against the mark, having closed Friday at $242.81 before giving some back this morning; the 17% to 21% GPU rental increase that took effect Thursday is now in the run rate, and the broader compute-demand read this morning is Cerebras rallying after Sam Altman called it "a close partner" with "a deep engagement pushing on the frontiers of speed." Strong hold. Oil matters to this book through the inflation channel, and the weekend made it worse: Houthi missiles and drones hit Aramco's Riyadh refinery Saturday and the Khurais field Sunday, Iran's parliament speaker said Hormuz stays closed until seven conditions are met, and Trump told TIME that strikes could resume after the midterms. Brent is about $102 and Murban $110 while WTI is $89.75, a spread above $10 that is the market's way of saying the strait is the problem, not the barrel. Diesel is $6.34.

Bottom line: HR is down 0.9% against Friday's update, +5.7% for October and +12.0% for the year. The jobs miss took the October hike off the table, the long end sold off anyway on France and term premium, and MSTR's Friday-afternoon fade is the day's number. Strategy kept buying over the weekend, the ETF flows held for a third week, and the chip sleeve is digesting rather than breaking. This week: Williams and Bowman this afternoon, Fed minutes Wednesday, consumer sentiment Friday, then CPI on October 14 and the start of third-quarter earnings. The trim decision on MSTR is with our team; you will see it here when it is made.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, October 5, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.