Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Oct 1 published unit ($1,802). Live marks (Fri, ~7:33 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Thursday's (Oct 1) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53).

Baseline note (Oct 2): today’s move is measured against the Oct 1 published update ($1,802). October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Oct 1 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Fri, ~7:33 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Thursday's (Oct 1) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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Safe Growth is marked at $1,848 near the open, +2.5% versus Thursday's published update, +2.5% for October and -0.5% on the week. The September jobs report landed at 8:30 Eastern and it was a miss on every line that matters: 29,000 jobs added against 90,000 expected, and the two prior months were revised down by a combined 60,000, which turns July into an outright loss of 10,000 jobs and cuts August to 133,000 from the 162,000 that was celebrated a month ago. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, wages grew 0.1% on the month and 3.0% on the year, both under forecast, health care hiring slowed to half its twelve-month pace, and financial firms have now shed 129,000 jobs since May of last year. This is a low-hire, low-fire economy, not a collapsing one, but it is a weaker one than the Fed believed it was hiking into.

That last point is the story. On September 16 the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years and called the labor market consistent with full employment, pointing to a payroll print that has since been revised down by 29,000 and a prior month that is now negative. The market's response this morning was immediate: the odds of a second hike at the October 28 meeting fell to about 16% from 64% a week ago and 70% the week before that, the 2-year yield dropped seven basis points to 4.72%, the 10-year fell to 5.18% from Thursday's 5.24% close and Wednesday's 5.34% high, and the 30-year is back to 5.57%. The dollar slipped to 101.8. To be clear about what is and is not being priced: nobody is pricing a rate cut. December is still the market's base case for one more quarter point, and that is now the only live meeting left this year. The path to actual cuts runs through three things that have not happened yet, the war premium coming out of oil, core PCE's three-month pace getting back under 3%, and the election passing, which realistically puts the first cut conversation in mid-2027. What changed today is narrower and still matters a great deal for this book: the bond market stopped assuming the Fed is behind the curve. Thursday's Fed speakers had already leaned that way, with Williams saying there was no urgency, Waller saying energy and tariffs are no longer a significant source of ongoing inflation, and Jefferson noting that yields have increased further and the committee needs time to assess. Add a weak jobs report and a 3.0% core PCE from Wednesday, and the hawks have less to work with than they did on Monday.

For a book that lost 3.5% in September almost entirely because the 10-year went from under 5% to 5.3%, a day when yields fall and the dollar softens is a day when the losers get a bid. TMF (+1.8%) is higher against Thursday's mark as the long end rallies; one good morning does not fix a position that is down about a third since entry, and the replacement proposal we promised this week is going to you today regardless, because the question is whether a 3x long-bond fund is the right way to own a Fed that is done hiking, not whether it bounces on a jobs miss. NUGT (+1.9%) is higher with gold holding around $4,200 after the report, up roughly half a percent to 1% on the day; gold has traded as a rate asset all month and it is doing so again from the other side today. EWW (+0.6%) and INDA (+0.7%) get the same relief through the dollar after the peso's worst month among major currencies in September. MSTR (+7.3%) is the best position in the book with bitcoin at $86,600, up more than 3% in 24 hours and back above the roughly $86,000 level where the average ETF holder bought; the spot ETFs took in $102.7 million Thursday, BlackRock's fund $195.6 million of it while Fidelity's saw redemptions, Citigroup raised its 12-month target to $113,000 from $82,000, and the stock closed Thursday up 5.4% at $160.50 before adding another 5% at today's open, so about a third of the move against our mark came Thursday afternoon. Hold.

XLE (-0.3%) is the position moving the other way, and honestly so. Brent is down about 2.9% to $99.40 this morning, under $100 for the first time in a week, and WTI is down roughly 4% to about $89. Two reasons: European governments are discussing a French proposal to release crude and fuel from strategic stockpiles to ease pump prices, and tanker tracking shows Middle East crude flows have largely recovered to pre-war levels through Hormuz and the restarted Saudi East-West pipeline. The caveats are real. At least three tankers were attacked transiting the strait this week, the Pentagon is weighing another carrier and 10,000 more personnel for the Gulf, and the reporting out of Washington is that Trump intends to resume strikes on Iran after the midterms rather than settle before them, which is the same read we gave you three weeks ago: the administration wants the oil premium gone in November, not a deal that looks like a concession in October. Iran says its position has not changed and that reopening the strait remains conditional. Meanwhile diesel is $6.39 a gallon, off the $6.53 record but still 70% above a year ago, and gasoline is $4.41 after September averaged $4.33, fifty cents above the prior record for the month. A barrel under $100 with diesel near a record tells you the shortage is in refining, not crude, and that is exactly the slice of the energy complex XLE does not own much of. The position stays a strong hold: the European reserve release is a one-time draw that has to be refilled, and the war is being deferred, not ended. ETN (+4.4%) is the second-best position in the book on no company news: the chip index opened up about 2% and the power and data-center names that feed it are moving with it, and Eaton is the long-duration growth name it is on a day the discount rate fell. NVDA (+2.0%), URA (+2.5%) and PPA (+1.1%) round out the book, all higher.

Bottom line: SG is up 2.5% against Thursday's update, +2.5% for October, and 0.5% below last Friday's mark. The jobs report did not create a rate cut; it took the October hike off the table and started a fair argument about December, and that alone is enough to put a bid under every rate-sensitive position we own. Oil under $100 is the cost of that trade for XLE and we will take it. Watch next week: September CPI is October 14, and until then the 10-year is the only number that matters. The TMF proposal is coming to you today.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, October 2, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.