High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Oct 1 published unit ($1,744). Live marks (Fri, ~7:33 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Thursday's (Oct 1) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Oct 2): today’s move is measured against the Oct 1 published update ($1,744). October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Oct 1 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Fri, ~7:33 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Thursday's (Oct 1) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,850 on the current whole-share model, +6.1% versus Thursday's published update, +6.7% for October and +4.7% on the week, with 2026 YTD at +13.0%, a tenth straight positive print for the year and the highest of the ten. The September jobs report is the day's story and it missed badly: 29,000 jobs against 90,000 expected, July revised to an outright loss of 10,000, August cut to 133,000 from 162,000, unemployment up to 4.2%, wages 3.0% on the year. That is a labor market weaker than the one the Fed said it was hiking into on September 16, and the market repriced the Fed within minutes: October 28 hike odds fell to about 16% from 64% a week ago, the 2-year dropped seven basis points to 4.72%, the 10-year fell to 5.18% from a 5.34% high on Wednesday, the dollar slipped to 101.8 and the Nasdaq opened up about 1%, the S&P about 0.8%.

Be precise about what this is. Nobody is pricing a rate cut; December is still the base case for one more quarter point, and real cuts need the oil premium out, core PCE's three-month pace under 3% and the election behind us, which is a 2027 conversation. What changed is that the bond market stopped assuming the Fed is behind the curve, and for a book that is one-third 3x leveraged index funds, the discount rate is the whole game. TQQQ (+4.2%) is the cleanest expression of that: the Nasdaq eked out a gain Thursday as the 10-year retreated from 5.30% intraday to 5.24% at the close, and it is higher against our mark this morning as the long end rallies further. SOXL (+9.9%) is the best position in the book and roughly a third of that move came Thursday afternoon: the semiconductor index rose 1.35% Thursday as Micron's record quarter got re-read more generously once rates stopped climbing, then opened up another 2% this morning with AMD up 3% on the rate relief, while Micron itself is slightly lower. A 3x fund turns a 1.35% session plus a 2% open into the number you see. We said Thursday that the thing that would change our hold on SOXL is a 10-year making multi-decade highs, not anything Micron said; today it is doing the opposite, and the hold stands with more room than it had 48 hours ago.

MSTR (+7.3%), at roughly 36% of this book, is the second-best position behind SOXL with bitcoin at $86,600, up more than 3% in 24 hours and back above the roughly $86,000 level where the average ETF holder bought, which has been resistance for two weeks. The flows turned: spot ETFs took in $102.7 million Thursday after Wednesday's $149 million outflow, with BlackRock's fund adding $195.6 million while Fidelity's saw redemptions, so the demand is concentrated in one issuer but it is there. Citigroup raised its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 citing the resumed inflows, and the stock closed Thursday up 5.4% at $160.50 before adding another 5% at today's open, with management still buying back high-coupon preferreds and the Sep 28 purchase of 1,665 coins taking holdings to 847,666. The bear case we have carried all month, bitcoin trading like a levered Nasdaq into a hiking Fed, is weaker on a morning when the Fed is less likely to hike and the dollar is softer; short covering is a plausible accelerator of today's move, so we would not read one morning as a trend. Hold, concentration flag stays at 36%, and the trim question is still open.

BE (+4.1%) is higher against the mark at about $287 and had its first quiet session in a week Thursday: no new Oracle news, no new order, the Project Jupiter pipeline timing still the overhang. A lower discount rate helps a stock priced on 2028 deliveries more than most, but the position earns its way off the watch list with an order, not a rates rally. Hold on watch. NBIS (+2.5%) is higher; its 17% to 21% increase on pay-as-you-go Nvidia GPU rentals took effect Thursday, the second increase in three months, and that is pricing power in a market the bears say is about to be oversupplied. Strong hold. Oil is the one thing not helping this book directly and it is helping indirectly: Brent fell under $100 to about $99.40 and WTI to about $89 on a French proposal to release European strategic stocks and tanker data showing Gulf flows back near pre-war levels, which is one less input into the inflation the Fed is fighting, even as diesel sits at $6.39 and the Pentagon weighs another carrier for the Gulf.

Bottom line: HR is up 6.1% against Thursday's update, +6.7% for October, and 4.7% above last Friday's mark. A weak jobs report took the October hike off the table, the long end rallied, bitcoin reclaimed $86,000 and the leveraged sleeve is doing what it does when the discount rate falls. None of that is a rate cut, and the honest read is that the Fed hiked into a labor market softer than it knew. SOXL and TQQQ hold, BE stays on watch, MSTR's concentration is the risk we own on purpose. September CPI on October 14 is the next print that can move the 10-year; until then, watch the 10-year.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, October 2, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.