Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 30 published unit ($1,818). Live marks (Thu, ~9:25 MDT, mid-morning); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Sep 30) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53).

Baseline note (Oct 1): today’s move is measured against the Sep 30 published update ($1,818). October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 30 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Thu, ~9:25 MDT, mid-morning); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Sep 30) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,802 this morning, -0.9% versus Wednesday's published update, on the first session of October and the fourth quarter. September is now locked closed in the track record at -3.47%, measured from the Aug 31 close to Wednesday's official close of $1,802.53, and the third quarter finishes at about +3.7% across July, August and September. For scale, the S&P 500 lost 0.4% in September and gained 2.0% for the quarter, the Dow lost 4.3% and 2.7%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.9% and 2.5%. Our September was worse than the index because the rate-sensitive sleeve took the hit: long bonds, gold miners and Mexico all fell as the 10-year went from just under 5% to 5.3% in a month, and that is the story we open the quarter with. October MTD now starts from Wednesday's close.

The bond market, not the Fed, is setting prices this morning. The 10-year touched 5.34% overnight, its highest since April 2002, after posting the biggest quarterly rise this century in the three months just ended; the 30-year closed Wednesday at 5.65%. It is a global selloff rather than an American one: France's 10-year is near 5% after its worst quarter since 1987, Britain's 30-year is above 6% for the first time since 1998, and Japan has now had five straight quarters of rising yields. The reasons cited are the ones we have been writing about all month, energy costs feeding inflation, an AI build-out competing for capital, and governments that keep borrowing, and the cost of insuring junk bonds is at its highest since early April. Here is the contradiction worth sitting with: the Fed's own inflation gauge cooled Wednesday, the October 28 hike has gone from 70% priced a week ago to roughly a coin flip, and the long end sold off anyway. Futures still discount about three more hikes by the middle of 2027. That is term premium, the price of lending for ten years in a world like this, and no single Fed meeting fixes it. Jobless claims came in at 197,000 against 201,000 expected this morning, so the labor market is not helping the bond bulls either. Then ISM manufacturing landed at 10am Eastern and made the bond market's point for it: the headline slipped to 54.5 against 55.0 expected, but the prices-paid index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, far above the 72 consensus, with raw-material costs up for a 24th straight month and 59% of factories reporting higher prices versus 46% in August. Steel, aluminum, petroleum products and tariffed imports were the sources named. That is the energy shock showing up in factory costs, exactly what Warsh called a supply shock to be looked through, and the 10-year sits near 5.30% after the print. Six Fed officials speak today including Williams at 2:30, and the September jobs report lands Friday on schedule, since the government is funded through December 11.

TMF (-1.2%) is where that lands in this book, and it is the position that cost September the most. We said the replacement proposal goes in front of you this week, and that holds; a fund that is 3x long the 20-year Treasury cannot make money while the 10-year is making 24-year highs on a cooling inflation print. NUGT (-4.5%) is lower with gold near $4,180, roughly where it closed Wednesday; most of its move against our mark came in Wednesday's afternoon session as the dollar firmed to 101.4 and yields climbed. EWW (-3.2%) has its own headline: the peso was the worst major currency in the world in September, down about 6%, erasing all of its 2026 gains as carry traders who had borrowed cheaply to own Mexican rates unwound the trade once US yields went past 5%. It is 18.07 to the dollar from a two-year high of 16.85 in early September, and Mexico's main index fell 1.4% Wednesday for a fourth straight monthly loss. The position stays a hold; the trade works again when US yields stop rising, and not before. XLE (+0.8%) is the steady one with WTI back above $92 and Brent pushing on $100, both up more than 2% this morning after Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports to protect domestic supply, which tightens the product market the same week diesel sits at a record. On the strait itself, Iran confirmed Wednesday that Washington's response to its seven-day Hormuz plan arrived Tuesday through Qatar, Araghchi briefed the cabinet, and neither side has said what is in it. The sticking point is sequencing, who opens first, and Trump already rejected the Iranian version. US crude inventories rose unexpectedly to 427 million barrels and Saudi loadings at Yanbu are back near 2 million barrels a day, so the barrel is healing while the refined products are not. Same strait. Strong hold.

NVDA (-0.1%) and ETN (-0.3%) get the Micron read-through. Micron reported after the close: revenue of $54.2 billion against $51.1 billion expected, earnings of $33.42 a share against $31.61, an 87% gross margin, data-center revenue up roughly eleven-fold on the year, and a guide for the current quarter of $61.5 billion and $38.15 a share against $57 billion and $35.40 on the Street. The vast majority of 2027 high-bandwidth memory supply is already contracted at significantly higher prices. The stock was flat before the bell and is down about 2% this morning anyway, because capital spending is going to about $25 billion in the first half of the fiscal year and management called an 86% margin the floor; after a 268% run this year, a floor is what gets sold. For Nvidia that is confirmation the memory its chips need is still the constraint, and for Eaton it is another $25 billion of fab construction that needs power gear. MSTR (+0.1%) is higher against the mark with bitcoin at $84,100, flat on the day; spot ETFs had their first net outflow since September 17 on Wednesday, $149 million with Fidelity's fund $126 million of it, though September still closed with $2.6 billion of inflows. Citigroup raised its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 this morning. Hold. URA (-2.0%), INDA (-0.8%) and PPA (+0.2%) round out the book.

Bottom line: SG is down 0.9% against Wednesday's update, about 2.9% below Friday's mark, and starts October at 0.0% after locking a -3.47% September. The quarter begins with the 10-year at a 24-year high on a day the Fed's own target cooled, which tells you the long end is pricing the world and not the next meeting. ISM prices paid at 77.9 is the number to remember from today, Micron confirmed the AI supply chain is still constrained, Iran's answer is in Tehran's hands, and the TMF proposal is coming this week. Fed speakers through the afternoon, jobs report Friday.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, October 1, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.