High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 30 published unit ($1,772). Live marks (Thu, ~9:25 MDT, mid-morning); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Sep 30) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,733.06). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Oct 1): today’s move is measured against the Sep 30 published update ($1,772). October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,733 for the current whole-share model. September is locked closed in the monthly table at +19.50%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 30 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Thu, ~9:25 MDT, mid-morning); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Sep 30) published update; October MTD starts from Wednesday Sep 30's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,744 on the current whole-share model, -1.6% versus Wednesday's published update, on the first session of October and the fourth quarter. September is locked closed in the track record at +19.50% on the performance chain, measured from the Aug 31 close to Wednesday's official close, and the third quarter finishes at about +7.5% on that chain across July, August and September. The Nasdaq gained 1.9% in September and 2.5% for the quarter, so the book did several times the index's quarter in a single month, and most of it came from two names: MSTR rose 16.7% in September against bitcoin's 9.6%, and the semiconductor and power sleeve rode the memory shortage. October MTD now starts from Wednesday's close, and 2026 YTD is +6.6%, a ninth straight positive print for the year.

The tape this morning belongs to the bond market. The 10-year touched 5.34% overnight, its highest since April 2002, after the biggest quarterly rise this century; the 30-year closed at 5.65%. It is global: France's 10-year near 5% after its worst quarter since 1987, Britain's 30-year above 6% for the first time since 1998, Japan's fifth straight quarter of rising yields. The contradiction is that the Fed's own inflation gauge cooled Wednesday, the October 28 hike is now roughly a coin flip from 70% a week ago, and the long end sold off anyway, with futures still pricing about three more hikes by mid-2027. For a book that is one-third 3x leveraged index funds, a rising discount rate is the direct headwind, and TQQQ (-1.3%) is trading it. Claims were 197,000 against 201,000 this morning, and ISM manufacturing at 10am Eastern slipped to 54.5 while its prices-paid index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, far above the 72 consensus, raw-material costs up a 24th straight month. Six Fed officials speak today, and the jobs report is Friday on schedule.

SOXL (0.0%) and the Micron print. The numbers were the best this company has ever reported: revenue of $54.2 billion against $51.1 billion expected, $33.42 a share against $31.61, an 87% gross margin, data-center revenue up roughly eleven-fold on the year, and a guide for the current quarter of $61.5 billion and $38.15 a share against $57 billion and $35.40 on the Street, with the vast majority of 2027 high-bandwidth memory supply already contracted at significantly higher prices. The stock was flat before the bell and is down about 2% this morning regardless. Two reasons: capital spending steps up to about $25 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, and management called an 86% gross margin the floor for the year. After a 268% run in 2026, the market heard "peak margin" and "supply is coming," which is exactly the Burry argument we laid out Wednesday. Our call on the position, which we said would go out before the print and is going out after it instead: hold. The guide stepped up by $4.5 billion over the Street, 2027 is contracted, and a 3x fund on an index whose largest constraint just got confirmed is not something we sell on a margin footnote. What would change that is the thing Micron cannot control, a 10-year that keeps making multi-decade highs and compresses every long-duration multiple in the index. We watch that daily.

BE (-4.6%) gave back 4.8% Wednesday to about $277 and is lower against our mark this morning. There is no new order and no new Oracle news; it is the post-inclusion unwind we flagged, with the Project Jupiter pipeline timing still the overhang and executive sales on the tape. Third sharp swing in four sessions, in both directions. Hold on watch. NBIS (-4.5%) is lower against the mark on a morning when the Burry short list (Micron, Nebius, Palantir, the semiconductor index) is getting its first real test; its roughly 20% GPU rental price increase takes effect today. Strong hold. MSTR (+0.1%), at roughly 36% of this book, is higher with bitcoin at $84,100, flat on the day. Spot ETFs had their first net outflow since September 17 on Wednesday, $149 million with Fidelity's fund $126 million of it, after September closed with $2.6 billion of inflows; Citigroup raised its 12-month target to $113,000 from $82,000 this morning, and Strategy's stack is 847,666 coins. Hold, concentration flag stays, trim question still open.

Bottom line: HR is down 1.6% against Wednesday's update, about 1.3% below Friday's mark, and starts October at +0.6% after locking a +19.50% September. The AI supply chain just confirmed it is still constrained and the market sold the confirmation, which is a positioning problem rather than a demand problem; the 10-year at a 24-year high is the real one. SOXL is a hold, BE is on watch, bitcoin's flows just blinked. ISM prices paid at 77.9 says the inflation fight is not over; Fed speakers through the afternoon, jobs report Friday.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, October 1, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.