Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 29 published unit ($1,827). Live marks (Wed, ~7:43 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 29) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,867.39).

Baseline note (Sep 30): today’s move is measured against the Sep 29 published update ($1,827). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,867. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +8.84%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 29 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Wed, ~7:43 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 29) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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Safe Growth is marked at $1,818 near the open, -0.5% versus Tuesday's published update and -2.6% for September with one session left in the month and the quarter (August locked closed at +8.84% in the track record table below; tomorrow's update locks September and opens October). The number that matters this morning is the one we have been pointing at since the CPI report three weeks ago: core PCE, the Fed's actual target. August came in at 3.0% year over year against 3.3% expected, 0.2% on the month against 0.3%, and headline PCE at 3.4% against 3.7%, both down from July's 3.3% and 3.7%. Consumer spending rose by the most in a year in the same report, so this is cooler prices on strong demand, not a slowdown. It landed a day after New York Fed President Williams said there was "no need for urgency" on another hike, and the two together have taken the October 28 hike from about 72% priced Monday to under 50% Tuesday afternoon to roughly 35% this morning; December is now the market's base case for the next move. The 10-year is 5.23% after touching 5.28% Tuesday, its high since 2007, and the 30-year crossed 5.6% Tuesday for the first time since June 2002 before pulling back; the 2-year fell five basis points to 4.83%. Two more prints round it out: ADP private payrolls rose 90,000 in September against 75,000 expected, and Tuesday's consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9, the lowest in twelve years, with job openings at 7.08 million against 7.23 million expected. Consumers spending at the fastest pace in a year while telling the Conference Board they feel worse than at any point since 2014 is the definition of paying prices you hate, and gasoline is most of why.

Oil is the other half of that, and today the war premium is coming back in rather than leaving. Washington did not deliver the formal answer Iran expected Tuesday; instead Trump ruled out easing sanctions ("I offered them NOTHING!"), the Treasury sanctioned ten individuals and companies supplying Iran's military, and Araghchi is on his way back to Tehran today with the seven-point plan unanswered. Iran's security chief Rezaei called Trump "trapped in a quagmire where he can neither negotiate nor fight," a ship was struck by a suspected projectile in the strait Tuesday morning, and the rial fell past 2.5 million to the dollar, a record. WTI is about $91, up 2%, after a 3.5% drop Tuesday to $89; Brent is near $97. The supply picture underneath is still healing: Saudi Arabia has the East-West pipeline back to roughly 3.5 million barrels a day, JPMorgan puts Middle East crude exports at 17.5 million barrels a day, 98% of the pre-war level, and Trump says 29 ships crossed Hormuz in a day under "total control." So the barrel is being priced on the politics again while the physical shortage is mostly gone, except in diesel, where Russia extended its export ban through October 31 this morning and US distillate stocks keep falling. Crude still finishes September and the quarter higher. XLE (+0.7%) is higher with it and stays a strong hold; the watch item is unchanged, a signed Hormuz timetable, and this morning moved it further away.

NUGT (+1.5%) is the best position in the book, with gold up 1.1% to about $4,224 on the PCE print, its first real bounce off the two-month low set Monday. We said last week gold was trading as a rate asset rather than a war hedge, and today confirms it from the other side: rates fell, gold rose. TMF (-1.2%) is lower against Tuesday's mark, but almost all of that came Tuesday afternoon as the 30-year went through 5.6%; what matters more is that it is still slightly lower than Tuesday's close despite the best inflation print of the year, because the long end is not rallying on it the way the 2-year is. That is the position's problem in one morning, and the replacement proposal we promised goes in front of you this week regardless of today's number. ETN (-1.3%) and PPA (-1.4%) are the other two red names of size: Eaton gave back part of Tuesday's acquisition pop into the close with no new headline, and the defense fund is lower with the rest of the industrial complex on a morning the money is going into rate-sensitive growth instead. MSTR (-0.7%) shows red against Tuesday's mark but is up about 1.5% from Tuesday's close; the whole drop was Tuesday afternoon. Bitcoin is $84,400, flat on the day and up 6.9% in September, which makes this the fourth straight positive September, the month's longest green streak on record for an asset that closed September down in eight of the thirteen years through 2025. Spot ETFs took in $66 million Tuesday (IBIT $51 million, ARKB $33 million, Fidelity zero), September's total is about $2.8 billion, and the position stays a hold. NVDA (+0.2%) is slightly higher; URA, INDA and EWW are each off less than a percent.

Bottom line: SG is down 0.5% against Tuesday's update and about 2.1% below Friday's mark, heading into the last close of September at -2.6% for the month. The Fed's own inflation gauge just gave it room to skip October, the bond market believed the front end of that and not the back end, and oil is being repriced on Iran's politics rather than its barrels. Micron reports after the close, Chicago PMI prints at 9:45 Eastern, four Fed speakers are on the calendar (Cook, Barkin, Goolsbee, Kashkari), and the September jobs report is Friday. Tomorrow's update locks September in the track record and opens October.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.