High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 29 published unit ($1,761). Live marks (Wed, ~7:43 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 29) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 30): today’s move is measured against the Sep 29 published update ($1,761). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 29 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Wed, ~7:43 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 29) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,772 on the current whole-share model, +0.6% versus Tuesday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +22.2% with one session left before tomorrow's update locks it, and 2026 YTD is +8.3%, an eighth straight positive print for the year. The morning belongs to the inflation report. August core PCE, the Fed's actual target, came in at 3.0% year over year against 3.3% expected and 0.2% on the month against 0.3%, headline 3.4% against 3.7%, both down from July, with consumer spending up the most in a year in the same release. A day after New York Fed President Williams said there was "no need for urgency" on another hike, that has taken the October 28 hike from about 72% priced Monday to roughly 35% this morning, with December now the base case. The 10-year is 5.23% after a 5.28% high Tuesday, the 2-year fell five basis points to 4.83%, the Nasdaq opened up about 0.6% against a flat Dow, and money is going into rate-sensitive growth: TQQQ (+2.1%) leads the book. The rest of the tape is less tidy. ADP payrolls beat at 90,000 for September, but Tuesday's consumer confidence fell to 81.9, the lowest in twelve years, job openings missed at 7.08 million, and both indexes closed lower a second day as the 30-year went through 5.6% for the first time since 2002. Oil is up 2% this morning with WTI near $91 after Washington declined to answer Iran's seven-point plan and Trump ruled out sanctions relief.

SOXL (+1.2%) is higher into the print this book has been pointed at for two weeks. Micron reports at 4:30 Eastern tonight: consensus is $50.8 billion of revenue and $31.28 a share against the company's own guide of $50 billion and $31, roughly 350% revenue growth on the year, and the stock is down about 2% before the bell near $1,076 after a 250% run in 2026. SanDisk rose 22% the day after Micron's last report, which is the kind of read-through a 3x semiconductor fund lives on; the other side is Michael Burry, who converted his Micron, Nebius, Palantir and semiconductor-index shorts into puts this week and says the memory shortage "will blow off" within two years as supply catches up. Our view: the guide is the number, not the quarter. Micron has already said 2026 high-bandwidth memory is sold out, so a beat on the quarter is priced; what moves the group tomorrow is whether the November guide steps up again or flattens. We said we would give our call on the SOXL position before the print, and that goes to you before the close today; no change before this update.

NBIS (+1.9%) is higher with its roughly 20% GPU rental price increase taking effect tomorrow, October 1, the clearest evidence in the book that the compute shortage is real regardless of what Burry thinks about memory; it is one of the names he is short. BE (+0.3%) is close to flat against Tuesday's mark after three double-digit swings in four sessions, which is the first quiet morning it has had since the Oracle notice; RBC reiterated Outperform with a $335 target Tuesday citing the Fremont expansion, the stock finished Tuesday above our mark and is giving a little of that back this morning. Hold, still on the watch list until Project Jupiter's pipeline timing is confirmed in writing.

MSTR (-0.7%), at roughly 35% of this book, shows red against Tuesday's mark but the entire drop came Tuesday afternoon; it is up about 1.5% from Tuesday's close. Bitcoin is $84,400, flat on the day and up 6.9% for September, which closes the month as the fourth straight positive September, the longest green streak the month has had for an asset that finished September lower in eight of the thirteen years through 2025 with an average return of minus 2.3%. Spot ETFs took in $66 million Tuesday (IBIT $51 million, ARKB $33 million, Fidelity zero), a small positive after Monday's $31 million, with September's total near $2.8 billion and the year back to net inflows. The position is well above our $94.78 average entry and still below the roughly $86,000 average cost of the ETF holders; a Fed that skips October is a weaker dollar, which has been bitcoin's working correlation all year. The trim question remains open and the concentration flag stays.

Bottom line: HR is up 0.6% against Tuesday's update, about 0.3% above Friday's mark, and one close away from locking a +22.2% September. The Fed's own inflation gauge just gave it room to skip October and leverage got the bid; bitcoin holds its line into month-end; and the whole chip sleeve is waiting on one guide at 4:30 Eastern. Our SOXL call goes to you before the close, Chicago PMI prints at 9:45, four Fed speakers are on the calendar, and the September jobs report is Friday. Tomorrow's update locks September in the track record and opens October.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.