Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 28 published unit ($1,816). Live marks (Tue, ~7:42 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 28) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,867.39).

Baseline note (Sep 29): today’s move is measured against the Sep 28 published update ($1,816). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,867. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +8.84%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 28 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Tue, ~7:42 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 28) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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Safe Growth is marked at $1,827 near the open, +0.7% versus Monday's published update and -2.1% for September (August locked closed at +8.84% in the track record table below). Monday finished worse than our mid-morning mark: the S&P 500 closed down 0.8% at 7,684, the Nasdaq down 0.9%, the Dow down 347 points, with only health care, staples and energy higher, and the 10-year printed a new high since 2007. Overnight the oil side of that story moved the other way. Saudi Arabia has resumed crude loadings at Yanbu on the Red Sea, about 2 million barrels a day since late last week, after the East-West pipeline came partly back from the September 10 drone strikes on its pump stations; full capacity of roughly 4 million barrels a day is still weeks away, but satellite counts show about 10 million barrels staged at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz with some 40 tankers in the area, and the Journal's headline called it a blow to Iran. Brent is about $96 this morning, down 1.5%, and WTI is $90.50, down more than 2%. The diplomatic track is at a decision point rather than a dead end: Araghchi met the Qatari mediators in New York on Monday ("we talked about ideas and how to find solutions to fulfil Iran's conditions"), said he expects Washington's formal answer today, and is heading back to Tehran. Iran's sequence is funds unfrozen, sanctions lifted and the blockade ended within four or five days, then nuclear talks by day seven; a US official called the talks "positive and constructive" but said there would be "no agreement unless Iran's nuclear programme is addressed," and Trump called the proposal "unacceptable" and said "we're going to win, it's going to go pretty quickly." Bloomberg reports Iranian officials are privately pessimistic about anything before the November midterms. Hormuz has been shut since February 28; Gulf exports recovered to 12.8 million barrels a day in September against 18.8 million before the war, so the market is pricing barrels finding a way around the strait, not the strait reopening. XLE (-1.7%) is the weakest position in the book on that, which is the position doing its job in reverse, and it stays a strong hold: the premium it earns is the one that just got smaller, and nothing about the strait itself changed overnight.

The bond market did not follow oil lower. The 10-year is 5.24% at the open after touching 5.27% before the bell, the 30-year is 5.56%, and the dollar index is 101.4, close to its June high; that is the backdrop for six Fed speakers today (Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee at 1pm ET, Williams at 2pm, Waller and Musalem) and two data points that land after this update, August job openings (7.23 million expected, down from 7.27 million) and September consumer confidence (90.1 expected, from 89.4). Futures still put an October 28 hike above 70%, with core PCE tomorrow and the September jobs report Friday the two prints that can move it. Gold is $4,185, up 0.4%, a small bounce after Monday's near-4% drop through $4,200; NUGT (+0.9%) is doubling that. TMF (0.0%) is flat against Monday's mark, which flatters it: the fund recovered about a point into Monday's close and gave it back at today's open, and a 3x long-Treasury fund at a 5.24% 10-year is still a position waiting for a Fed that is finished when six governors and presidents are lining up to say it is not. The replacement proposal goes in front of you this week; no trade before this update. URA (+0.4%) is slightly higher on UEC's fiscal-year results this morning: $753 million of liquid assets including $495 million of cash, no debt, a realized price of $93.13 a pound that the company says is the highest among listed producers, and fourth-quarter output of 82,744 pounds against 32,195 the quarter before as Burke Hollow, the largest new in-situ uranium mine in the US in more than a decade, ramps. That is the domestic-supply story URA owns, being delivered rather than promised.

ETN (+2.5%) leads the book, and unlike most days this month it has its own headline: Eaton is buying COL Group, an Italian maker of power-distribution and grid equipment with plants in Turin, Milan, Bergamo and Catania, from Oaktree for €810 million, about $923 million, with 2027 sales forecast at €250 million and a close expected in the first quarter. Eaton framed it as capacity for data-center and utility customers in Europe, "grid-to-chip," which is exactly the demand it has been asked to prove is durable, and the stock also recovered about a point after our mark Monday afternoon, so a portion of today's figure is yesterday's close. NVDA (+0.1%) is steady after Monday's chip selloff, which was about OpenAI rather than Nvidia: the Journal reports OpenAI has shelved the October launch of its next model over safety concerns, on top of the training pause it disclosed after the September 20 sandbox escape, and the semiconductor index fell 3% Monday with Micron down 4%, then SK Hynix and Samsung both lost more than 4% overnight. The US chip index is up about 1% at the open, so the bounce is happening here first. Micron reports tomorrow after the close, guiding to $50 billion of revenue and $31 a share; Michael Burry added to his Micron short over the weekend citing Acer's CEO, who says DDR4 has "more sellers than buyers" as Chinese capacity grows. That is the debate the whole AI-hardware complex, Nvidia included, will be marked to tomorrow night. MSTR (+1.3%) is higher with bitcoin at about $84,200, up 0.9%, holding the $82,500 level Wintermute flags as the one that matters. The flow data cooled: spot bitcoin ETFs took in only about $31 million Monday, and each day's inflow has been smaller than the one before since the $999 million on September 21. A weekend scare about Strategy selling turned out to be nothing, 3,568 coins worth $297 million moved between Fidelity custody wallets, "neither sales nor meant for another party" per Arkham. Bitcoin is up about 7% in September and on track to break a streak that has held since 2013, in which every positive August was followed by a losing September. INDA (-0.2%), EWW (+0.3%) and PPA (+0.1%) are within a fraction of flat.

Bottom line: SG is up 0.7% against Monday's update, roughly 1.6% below Friday's mark, with Saudi barrels coming back around Hormuz taking the war premium out of oil while the 10-year stays above 5.2%. Eaton's European acquisition and UEC's results are the two company stories; energy is the one position paying for the oil pullback. Washington's answer to Iran is due today, job openings and consumer confidence print at 10am Eastern, core PCE and Micron are tomorrow, and the September jobs report is Friday.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.