High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 28 published unit ($1,697). Live marks (Tue, ~7:42 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 28) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 29): today’s move is measured against the Sep 28 published update ($1,697). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 28 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Tue, ~7:42 MDT, near the open); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 28) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,761 on the current whole-share model, +3.8% versus Monday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +21.4% so far, and 2026 YTD is +7.6%, a seventh straight positive print for the year. One honesty note on the figure: Monday's mark was taken mid-morning, and chips recovered part of their drop into Monday's close before adding to it at today's open, so today's move is roughly two-thirds yesterday afternoon and one-third this morning for SOXL, and almost entirely this morning for BE. The macro is quieter than it has been: Brent is about $96 (down 1.5%) and WTI $90.50 as Saudi Arabia resumes Red Sea crude loadings at Yanbu around the Hormuz closure, Araghchi expects Washington's formal answer to Iran's seven-day plan today, the 10-year is 5.24% after touching 5.27% before the open, and the Nasdaq is opening a fraction higher after Monday's 0.9% drop. Monday's chip selloff was about OpenAI, not demand: the Journal reports OpenAI has shelved the October launch of its next model over safety concerns, on top of the training pause it disclosed after the September 20 sandbox escape, and the semiconductor index fell 3% with Micron down 4%; SK Hynix and Samsung followed with losses above 4% overnight and the KOSPI dropped 2.3%. The US chip index is up about 1% at the open, which is why SOXL (+7.2%) is the second-best position in the book: three times a recovery. Tomorrow after the close is the real test. Micron guided to $50 billion of revenue, $31 a share and an 86% gross margin for the quarter, has said its entire 2026 high-bandwidth memory supply is sold, and the stock is about 16% off its high after Michael Burry added to his shorts in Micron, Nebius, Palantir and the chip ETF over the weekend, citing Acer's CEO on Chinese capacity: "over the next two years this shortage will blow off as production catches up." Nvidia is up a fraction. TQQQ (+1.1%) is three times a Nasdaq that closed lower and opened higher. The SOXL swap into an unlevered semiconductor fund goes in front of you before Micron reports; nothing changes in this update.

BE (+10.3%) is the best position in the book, and it is the mirror image of Monday, when it was the S&P 500's worst performer at down 9%. What is on the tape: Jefferies raised its target to $264 from $229 and kept a Hold; Bloom's CEO told an industry audience that local pushback against grid-connected data centers is a boon for on-site fuel cells; Oracle, its largest customer, launched a new wave of AI agent products this morning with no mention of Project Jupiter either way; and the securities class action over scandium sourcing passed its lead-plaintiff deadline Monday without news. None of that is a new order or a contract change. What it is, is the same short-term money that sold a stock up roughly 200% this year for 9% on Monday buying it back for 10% on Tuesday, which is the third double-digit swing in four sessions. HOLD, on the watch list, for the reason we gave yesterday: a register this fast-moving means the stock will overshoot in both directions around the next real datapoint, which is the Jupiter pipeline timetable. NBIS (+2.7%) is higher with the group and with no new headline of its own; the two live arguments about it are unchanged, Redburn's Sell on falling GPU rental prices and Burry's added short on one side, SemiAnalysis's top-tier rating and Nebius's own 20% price increase effective October 1 on the other. The price increase either sticks or it does not, and we will know within weeks. HOLD.

MSTR (+1.3%), at roughly 36% of this book, is higher with bitcoin at about $84,200, up 0.9%, holding above the $82,500 level Wintermute identifies as the top of the old range and the line that matters. The flow story cooled rather than broke. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $31 million Monday, and every day since the $999 million on September 21 has been smaller than the one before: $715 million, $347 million, $191 million, $134 million, then $31 million. Wintermute says retail clients on its desk sold bitcoin last week to fund altcoin bets, and names oil, rates and the chance of another Fed hike as the threats to the regime; bitcoin's 90-day correlation to the 10-year yield is near zero against gold's minus 0.4, which is why it has held up while gold has not. A weekend scare about Strategy selling was nothing: 3,568 coins worth $297 million moved across twelve transactions inside Fidelity's custody, "neither sales nor meant for another party" per Arkham, and the company bought 1,665 coins the week before. Strategy has also asked holders to approve daily dividend accrual on its four listed preferreds, vote October 28, to pull STRC back toward par. Bitcoin is up about 7% in September and on track to break a pattern intact since 2013, every positive August followed by a losing September; $2.45 billion of open interest sits in $90,000 calls, and Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer says a break above the range "will confirm a double bottom targeting $100K." The position is well above our $94.78 average entry, still below the roughly $86,000 average cost of the ETF holders. The trim question is live and we owe you an answer; the concentration flag stays.

Bottom line: HR is up 3.8% against Monday's update, about 0.3% below Friday's mark, so the book has roughly round-tripped a week that included a 4% down day and a 4% up day. Bloom and the chip sleeve did the work, bitcoin held its line on thinning inflows, and none of it settles the question Micron answers tomorrow night. Washington's answer to Iran is due today, job openings and consumer confidence print at 10am Eastern, core PCE lands with Micron tomorrow, and the September jobs report is Friday.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.