Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 22 published unit ($1,896). Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 22) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,867.39).

Baseline note (Sep 23): today’s move is measured against the Sep 22 published update ($1,896). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,867. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +8.84%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 22 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 22) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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Safe Growth is marked at $1,890 near the open, -0.3% versus Tuesday's published update and +1.2% for September (August locked closed at +8.84% in the track record table below). The big indexes finished Tuesday about where they started, with the Nasdaq eking out a second straight record close at 27,244, the S&P 500 flat at 7,765 and the Dow down 0.4%, and this morning opens a shade lower across the board, the Nasdaq off about 0.3%. A flat tape hides a lot of motion underneath, and most of it happened in the hours after Tuesday's mark: gold ran toward $4,400 in the afternoon and gave it all back overnight, the chip index kept climbing into the close and is giving some back at the open, and refiners were sold on a headline out of the White House we will get to. Two things frame the day. Washington and Tehran are talking again, three hours of it, and two Fed presidents in two days have told the market that last week's hike was a first step rather than a one-off.

Start with Iran, because the way Tuesday unfolded tells you how to read it. Trump used his UN speech in the morning to say he could "annihilate the Islamic Republic" and "drive them into hell," and all but one member of Iran's delegation walked out. That afternoon Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner sat for three hours of mediated talks with Foreign Minister Araghchi, Qatar and Oman shuttling between the rooms. Trump called it "a very good meeting, a very productive meeting" with "a lot of momentum," said another is scheduled "in the very near future," and Witkoff called it "constructive and promising"; Iran's state media said it happened "at the request and insistence of the American side." Iran's price has not moved: lift the naval blockade, release the frozen assets, and end the war on every front, Lebanon included, in exchange for reopening Hormuz within seven days. Pezeshkian speaks to the Assembly this morning, his first since the war began. Threats in the morning and three hours of talks in the afternoon is what a negotiation looks like when both sides need one, and the oil market is pricing it that way: after five straight down days, crude is mixed this morning, WTI about $91 and Brent in the high $90s, both still up more than 50% on the year. XLE (+0.9%) is firmer against Tuesday's mark anyway, and there is a new wrinkle for it. Diesel hit $6.53 a gallon on Tuesday, another record, and Trump said he wants a diesel export ban; Bessent said the administration is "examining whether it's feasible in terms of the overall refining capacity and whether a full or partial ban would work," with a decision coming "quickly, one way or another." Refiners such as Valero and Marathon were sold on it, and that is the slice of XLE this touches; the integrated majors that make up most of the fund are exposed to the crude price, not to export rules. Our read: a ban would cut the pump price for a few weeks and raise it afterward, because US refineries are already running flat out and the barrels that stop going to Europe and Latin America do not turn into cheaper diesel in Iowa for long. It is the kind of thing a government does seven weeks before an election, and the market is right to price a little of it. The position is up about 27% on our entry and stays a strong hold.

Barkin gave the hawks their second voice in two days. The Richmond Fed president said the "passing" shocks "aren't proving to be short-lived, or one-off events," that more than 60% of the PCE basket is rising faster than 3% a year, that "with inflation more than a percentage point above target, that's a problem," and, on further hikes, "Will additional hikes be required, and how many? We'll see." Put that next to Goolsbee's "painful" on Monday and the message is consistent: September was a first step. The bond market has stopped ignoring it. The 10-year is back at 4.99% this morning after 4.94% on Tuesday, the 30-year is 5.32%, the 5-year 4.87%, and the 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.12% from 6.97% in a week. TMF (-1.6%) is lower on it, and that is the problem with the position in one sentence: it needs a Fed that is done, and two regional presidents just said it is not. It stays on watch. Gold heard the same thing. It ran toward $4,400 on Tuesday afternoon and is back near $4,345 this morning, down about 1% with the dollar firmer at 100.9, and NUGT (-2.3%) closed Tuesday well above our mark before giving all of it back at the open, which is what a leveraged miner fund does with a 1% move in the metal. The Chinese import bid under gold has not changed, more than 1,000 tons through August, so we treat it as another rate-driven dip rather than a top. The flash PMIs land at 9:45 ET, expected at 53.5 for manufacturing from 53.9 and 56.0 for services from 56.5; in this regime a strong print is hawkish, and that is the read to apply. Xi Jinping lands at Andrews today for the first Chinese state visit in eleven years: military honors, the National Archives, a state dinner with Jensen Huang, Sam Altman and Cristiano Amon on the list, and the summit itself tomorrow. The tariff truce expires November 10 and China's 90% share of rare-earth processing is why Trump has been unusually polite going in; Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng have already discussed an AI-safety notification framework and cuts to non-strategic tariffs. INDA (0.0%) is flat and still carries the Russia-oil tariff question from last week's sanctions act; EWW (0.0%) is unchanged; PPA (-0.7%) is lower; URA (-1.6%) is heavy again with no company headline, which is the rate move hitting the long-duration commodity names, and it stays on watch with UEC's results due September 29.

NVDA (-0.3%) is a touch lower at the open, and it has the most direct stake in tomorrow's summit of anything we own: its guidance assumes zero data-center chip sales to China, so any movement on export licenses is upside that is not in the numbers, and Huang at the dinner table is the closest that question has come to the two men who decide it. Micron is back above $1,000 a share a week before it reports on September 30, which is the memory shortage we keep pointing to, and the reason the AI trade keeps finding a new leader every few days. ETN (+0.9%) is higher for a fourth straight session, still with no company headline; the data-center power story does not need one. MSTR (-1.1%) is a touch lower against Tuesday's mark with bitcoin near $85,600, off a fraction on the day and sitting just under the roughly $86,000 average cost basis of the ETF holders, the level we flagged as the place where January's buyers can leave at breakeven. The flows say they are not leaving. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $714.7 million on Tuesday, a fourth straight inflow day, on top of Monday's $999 million: BlackRock's IBIT $350.3 million, Fidelity's FBTC $257.4 million, Morgan Stanley's new MSBT $99 million. About $1.7 billion in two days is allocation, not leverage, and it arrived while the price stalled under resistance at $87,300 to $87,500, which is the setup that usually resolves higher once the breakeven sellers are done. MSTR stays on watch. No trade before this update.

Bottom line: SG is down 0.3% today on a flat tape with a lot going on beneath it. The US and Iran talked for three hours after Trump threatened to annihilate them, and oil is holding rather than falling; the White House put a diesel export ban on the table at a $6.53 record; Barkin joined Goolsbee in saying more hikes are possible and the 10-year is back at 4.99%; and Xi lands today with Nvidia's China business on the menu. What to watch: Pezeshkian's speech this morning and whether the next US-Iran meeting gets a date, the 9:45 PMIs, whether the 10-year closes above 5% again, whether bitcoin holds $85,000 with four days of inflows behind it, and any diesel decision out of the White House.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.