High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 22 published unit ($1,789). Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 22) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 23): today’s move is measured against the Sep 22 published update ($1,789). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 22 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Sep 22) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,796 on the current whole-share model, +0.4% versus Tuesday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +23.8% so far, and 2026 YTD is +9.7%, a third straight positive print for the year after Monday's first since June 23. The big indexes finished Tuesday about where they started, with the Nasdaq eking out a second straight record close at 27,244 and the S&P 500 flat, and this morning opens a shade lower, the Nasdaq off about 0.3%. The chip sleeve did most of its work after Tuesday's mark: the Philadelphia semiconductor index kept climbing into the close and is giving about 1.3% back at the open, so SOXL (+4.3%) is up against Tuesday's mark and down from Tuesday's close at the same time, which is a 3x fund catching up to an afternoon it already had. TQQQ (+0.6%) is a touch higher on the same arithmetic. Micron is back above $1,000 a share a week before it reports on September 30, which is the memory shortage we keep pointing to and the reason the AI trade keeps finding a new leader every few days; Nvidia's stake in tomorrow's Xi summit is the most direct of any chip name, because its guidance assumes zero data-center sales to China and Jensen Huang is at tonight's state dinner. The SOXL swap into an unlevered semiconductor fund is still under review, and we will put a proposal in front of you before Micron reports. NBIS (-1.9%) is softer for a second session with no company news; the October 1 GPU price increase stands and the $5 billion convertible remains the open dilution question. BE (+1.6%) is firmer in its third session inside the S&P 500, which is the digestion ending; the Nebius fuel-cell contract is why we own it. HOLD on both.

MSTR (-1.1%), at roughly 37% of this book, is a touch lower against Tuesday's mark with bitcoin near $85,600, off a fraction on the day and sitting just under the roughly $86,000 average cost basis of the ETF holders, the level we flagged as the place where January's buyers can leave at breakeven. The flows say they are not leaving. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $714.7 million on Tuesday, a fourth straight inflow day, on top of Monday's $999 million: BlackRock's IBIT $350.3 million, Fidelity's FBTC $257.4 million, Morgan Stanley's new MSBT $99 million. About $1.7 billion in two days is allocation, not leverage, and it arrived while the price stalled under resistance at $87,300 to $87,500, which is the setup that usually resolves higher once the breakeven sellers are done; Strategy's 950-coin purchase on Monday, its first in three weeks, is the other half of that. The position is well above our $94.78 average entry in this book. The caveats stand: bitcoin is 32% below January's all-time high, the last two weeks have included both the biggest outflow days since June and the biggest inflow day of the year, and at roughly 37% of the unit MSTR's day is HR's day in both directions. The trim question is live and we owe you an answer this week. The concentration flag stays.

The macro is still doing the work for leverage, and Tuesday showed both sides of it in one day. Trump told the UN in the morning he could "annihilate the Islamic Republic" and "drive them into hell," Iran's delegation walked out, and that afternoon Witkoff and Kushner sat for three hours of mediated talks with Foreign Minister Araghchi. Trump: "a very good meeting, a very productive meeting," "a lot of momentum," another "in the very near future." Witkoff: "constructive and promising." Iran's price is unchanged, lift the blockade, release the frozen assets, end the war on every front including Lebanon, for a Hormuz reopening within seven days; Pezeshkian speaks this morning. Crude is mixed after five down days, WTI about $91, and cheaper oil is the whole reason a 3x Nasdaq fund has had room to work this month. The other side is the Fed. Richmond's Barkin said the "passing" shocks "aren't proving to be short-lived, or one-off events," that "with inflation more than a percentage point above target, that's a problem," and on more hikes, "Will additional hikes be required, and how many? We'll see." After Goolsbee's "painful" on Monday, the 10-year is back at 4.99% this morning from 4.94%, the 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.12% from 6.97% in a week, and a 5% 10-year is the direct threat to a 3x fund and the reason we are not adding here. Diesel hit $6.53, a record, and the White House is now "examining" a diesel export ban, an election-season move that would cut the pump price briefly and raise it later. The flash PMIs land at 9:45 ET; in this regime a strong print is hawkish. Xi lands today, the summit is tomorrow, the tariff truce expires November 10, and Bessent has already discussed an AI-safety notification framework with Beijing. No portfolio change today.

Bottom line: HR is up 0.4% today on a flat tape, with the chip sleeve catching up to Tuesday's afternoon while giving a little back at the open, and MSTR sitting just under the ETF holders' cost basis with $1.7 billion of inflows in two days behind it. Three hours of US-Iran talks and a mixed oil price keep the setup that lets leverage work; Barkin's "we'll see" on more hikes and a 10-year back at 4.99% is what takes it away. Watch Pezeshkian this morning and whether the next meeting gets a date, the 9:45 PMIs, the 10-year against 5%, bitcoin against $85,000, and Nvidia's China question at tomorrow's summit.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.