Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 14 published unit ($1,796). Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 14) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,867.39).

Baseline note (Sep 15): today’s move is measured against the Sep 14 published update ($1,796). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,867. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +8.84%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 14 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 14) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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Safe Growth is marked at $1,806 near the open, +0.6% versus Monday's published update and -3.3% for September (August locked closed at +8.84% in the track record table below). After Monday's de-risking this is a modest bounce, not a reversal, and the thing to watch today is the bond market, not the stock tape. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% overnight for the first time since July 2007, the 2-year sits near 4.65%, and the dollar is at a two-week high. This morning's Empire State survey then delivered the mix a central bank likes least a day before it meets: activity missed badly (7.6 vs 14.8 expected) while prices paid jumped to 63.1, above a four-year high. Weaker output and hotter costs in the same print is stagflation in miniature.

The Fed decides tomorrow at 2pm ET, with August retail sales at 8:30am the same morning. A 25 basis point hike is 91-93% priced, so the hike is not the event; the framing is. Our base case is unchanged: the statement calls it a move to restore progress rather than the start of a cycle, and Chair Warsh leans on the breadth of PCE inflation (core PCE 3.3% against core CPI 2.4%) and on energy as a supply shock the Fed cannot fix. Two things can upset that. The vote: Governor Miran has called a hike now "really strange", and two or three dissents would read as a committee that hiked reluctantly. And the dots: a median showing two more hikes by year-end would undo the relief the bond market found after CPI, while one more hike and no 2027 cuts is what the market can live with. TMF (-0.5%) is lower again with the long end at 5%; it stays on watch, and nothing gets added to duration a day before the first hike in more than three years.

The oil side got no relief. Houthi missiles and drones hit Saudi Arabia again overnight, this time at Yanbu, the Red Sea port where the East-West pipeline ends, and the Saudi coalition answered with 54 airstrikes on Yemen in 24 hours. The pipeline is now expected to be out for three to five weeks, with Yanbu's storage covering only five to seven days of exports, and HSBC put a number on it this morning: a global deficit near 6 million barrels a day into mid-October, the largest since the war began, with Brent at $120 in its stalemate case. The diplomatic track did not slip, it collapsed: the Salalah conference on a temporary Hormuz route was cancelled after Bahrain refused to attend, with no new date. Brent is near $107 after touching $108, AAA diesel printed another record at $6.27 a gallon (up 37 cents in a week), and regular gasoline is $4.33, up 18 cents in a week with the midterms seven weeks out and both the Reuters/Ipsos and NYT/Siena polls showing Democrats up 7-8 points on the generic ballot. That is the pressure behind every White House comment about rates and oil. Against all of that XLE (-0.9%) is red on no company news: after being the only green name in the book Monday, it is getting sold with the dollar firm and positioning squared up before the Fed. A one-day dip does not change the thesis while the pipeline is out for weeks.

On the AI side, Monday's slow-down scare met pushback from the top. President Trump phoned Jensen Huang live on stage at the All-In Summit, called the AI-doom argument "a hoax" and described data centers as "the oil of the next 20, 25 years"; Broadcom's Hock Tan said Anthropic's call changes his AI revenue targets "not in the least". NVDA (+2.0%) and ETN (+1.4%) are steadying. Gold is $4,287 and NUGT (+2.3%) is bouncing a little after a 6% drop, still trading as a rate-sensitive asset into the hike rather than a war hedge. MSTR (-1.9%) is the swing name: bitcoin slid from $79,500 to about $77,000 ahead of today's Senate vote on the CLARITY Act after Democrats countered the Republican draft late Monday and prediction-market odds of passage this year roughly halved. Strategy also skipped its weekly bitcoin purchase, buying back $139 million of its STRC preferred instead, though Barclays raised its price target to $160 this morning. No trade before this update.

Bottom line: SG is up +0.6% today. A 5% 10-year, a Saudi pipeline out for weeks and record diesel are the backdrop for tomorrow's hike; the dots and the vote count decide whether the market treats it as one-and-done.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.