High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 14 published unit ($1,467). Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 14) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,457.64). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Sep 15): today’s move is measured against the Sep 14 published update ($1,467). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,458 for the current whole-share model. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +15.35%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 14 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Sep 14) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,490 on the current whole-share model, +1.6% versus Monday's published update. August locked closed at +15.35% for the month on the performance chain (track record table below); September is +2.7% so far, and 2026 YTD is -9.0%.

The leveraged sleeve is catching its breath after Monday's rout, and the pushback on the AI slow-down story came from the top. President Trump phoned Jensen Huang live on stage at the All-In Summit, called the AI-doom argument "a hoax" and described data centers as "the oil of the next 20, 25 years". Broadcom's Hock Tan, asked directly about Anthropic's call to slow down, said his AI revenue targets change "not in the least", kept his $115 billion and $230 billion numbers for the next two fiscal years, and said Anthropic is on track to be his largest custom-chip customer in 2027. Sam Altman added that OpenAI's IPO slipped to 2027 for reasons unrelated to the market. That is the demand side saying nothing changed, and SOXL (+3.5%), TQQQ (+2.5%), BE (+6.2%) and NBIS (+1.9%) are all higher on it. The bounce is modest for a reason. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% overnight for the first time since 2007, the dollar is at a two-week high, this morning's Empire State survey paired a bad activity miss with a jump in prices paid, and the Fed decides tomorrow with a 25 basis point hike 91-93% priced. Three-times funds do not like a 5% 10-year, and Monday's rotation into software (Adobe, ServiceNow, Salesforce) is a reminder that even inside tech the money is choosing the companies that spend on AI over the ones that build it, for now.

MSTR (-1.9%), at roughly 35% of this book, is the drag as bitcoin slid from $79,500 overnight to about $77,000 ahead of today's Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, the crypto market-structure bill: Democrats countered the Republican draft late Monday, Senator Lummis says she has exhausted her revisions, and prediction-market odds of passage this year roughly halved. Strategy's Monday filing showed no bitcoin purchases last week and $139 million spent buying back its STRC preferred; Barclays raised its price target to $160 this morning. Behind all of it the oil picture is worse, not better: Houthis hit Yanbu and three other Saudi cities overnight, the East-West pipeline is out for three to five weeks, HSBC sees a 6 million barrel-a-day global deficit into mid-October, the Salalah Hormuz talks collapsed outright, and US diesel printed another record at $6.27. That is what the Fed hikes into tomorrow. No portfolio change today. Bloom's S&P 500 inclusion on Sep 21 is still the next dated catalyst for BE; tomorrow's dots and Warsh's press conference decide the rest.

Bottom line: HR is up +1.6% today. The AI demand story got its rebuttal from Trump, Huang and Broadcom, but a 5% 10-year and tomorrow's hike cap how much a leveraged book can bounce on it.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.