Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | $1,887 | -0.1% | +10.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | $1,916 | +1.5% | +11.6% |
| 2026-08-28 | $1,920 | +0.2% | +11.9% |
| 2026-08-31 ◀ Today | $1,855 | -3.4% | +8.1% |
Today = vs the Aug 28 published unit ($1,920). Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Friday's (Aug 28) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).
Baseline note (Aug 28): today’s move is measured against the Aug 28 published update ($1,920); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $403.29 | -2.9% | +20.7% | 21.7% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $218.89 | -3.6% | +18.4% | 11.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $64.02 | +2.8% | +30.9% | 10.4% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $185.09 | -12.5% | -32.2% | 10.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $167.51 | -2.2% | -5.6% | 9.0% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $76.14 | -1.3% | +0.5% | 8.2% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $49.80 | +0.2% | -3.9% | 8.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $45.64 | -4.7% | -19.3% | 7.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $126.92 | -5.9% | -21.2% | 6.8% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $30.64 | -2.8% | -18.7% | 6.6% | WATCH 👀 |
Today = vs the Aug 28 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Friday's (Aug 28) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense30.8%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy27.7%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin18.6%
- 🌎 International16.3%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.6%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 30.8% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $403.29 | $403.29 | 21.7% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $167.51 | $167.51 | 9.0% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 27.7% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $64.02 | $192.05 | 10.4% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $185.09 | $185.09 | 10.0% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $45.64 | $136.92 | 7.4% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 18.6% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $218.89 | $218.89 | 11.8% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $126.92 | $126.92 | 6.8% |
| 🌎 International — 16.3% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $76.14 | $152.28 | 8.2% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $49.80 | $149.41 | 8.1% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.6% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $30.64 | $122.54 | 6.6% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,855 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.1%▲ | — | -3.4% | |||
▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,855 near the open, -3.4% versus Friday's published update and +8.1% for August. Friday's Jackson Hole keynote — Fed Chair Warsh's first as chair — came in hawkish, not the dovish pivot risk assets had been betting on: he signaled the Fed may need to raise rates and pushed back on inflation, and the dollar rallied hard into the weekend. That's exactly the outcome we flagged Friday as capable of breaking the bitcoin-and-gold rally that had built into the speech — it broke it.
Then Iran escalated again overnight: US forces struck Iranian targets in their first military action in a month, spiking oil and rattling stocks, before a ceasefire framework proposal and reports of cleared Hormuz mines pulled oil back off the highs a few hours later — a genuine weekend whipsaw. The net effect this morning is broad risk-off across the book: XLE (+2.8%) is the one name working, still riding the lingering Iran oil-risk premium, while NUGT (-12.5%), MSTR (-5.9%) and TMF (-2.8%) are all unwinding the same rate-cut hope that Warsh's speech undercut.
TMF in particular takes a direct hit from Friday's hawkish tilt — it already needed a rate-cut path the Fed hadn't confirmed, and now the Fed's own new chair is talking about hikes instead. It stays on our watch list; no trade before this update.
Bottom line: SG is down -3.4% today as the market delivers its real read on Jackson Hole — a hawkish surprise plus a fast-moving Iran headline cycle, with energy the only part of the book holding up.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, August 31, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.