Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | $1,888 | +0.6% | +10.1% |
| 2026-08-26 | $1,887 | -0.1% | +10.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | $1,916 | +1.5% | +11.6% |
| 2026-08-28 ◀ Today | $1,920 | +0.2% | +11.9% |
Today = vs the Aug 27 published unit ($1,916). Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Aug 27) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).
Baseline note (Aug 28): today’s move is measured against the Aug 27 published update ($1,916); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $415.30 | -2.2% | +24.3% | 21.6% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $227.15 | +1.5% | +22.9% | 11.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $211.47 | +2.1% | -22.5% | 11.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $62.26 | 0.0% | +27.3% | 9.7% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $171.25 | -0.7% | -3.5% | 8.9% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $77.16 | 0.0% | +1.9% | 8.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $49.72 | +0.2% | -4.0% | 7.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $47.87 | -1.1% | -15.4% | 7.5% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $134.88 | +7.1% | -16.2% | 7.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $31.53 | -0.5% | -16.4% | 6.6% | WATCH 👀 |
Today = vs the Aug 27 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Aug 27) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense30.5%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy28.2%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin18.9%
- 🌎 International15.8%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.6%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 30.5% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $415.30 | $415.30 | 21.6% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $171.25 | $171.25 | 8.9% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 28.2% | |||||
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $211.47 | $211.47 | 11.0% |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $62.26 | $186.77 | 9.7% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $47.87 | $143.61 | 7.5% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 18.9% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $227.15 | $227.15 | 11.8% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $134.88 | $134.88 | 7.0% |
| 🌎 International — 15.8% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $77.16 | $154.31 | 8.0% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $49.72 | $149.15 | 7.8% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.6% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $31.53 | $126.12 | 6.6% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,920 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +11.9%▲ | — | 0.0% | |||
▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,920 near the open, +0.2% versus Thursday's published update and +11.9% for August. The bigger story this morning is the setup heading into Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as chair (live now, ~10am ET), and it's genuinely tense rather than routine. This week's inflation data gave him no cover to sound dovish: core PCE held at 3.3% year-over-year (in line, not falling) and the headline print ran hotter than forecast, with CNN noting consumers are pulling back on spending even as prices keep climbing — an uncomfortable combination. Layer on a real six-month US–Iran conflict that just escalated again (an overnight strike on Iran's South Pars gas field), pushing Brent higher and worsening pain at the pump for drivers heading into this fall's elections — that's inflationary pressure from the energy side landing at the worst possible moment for a new Fed chair trying to sound credible on prices.
And yet bitcoin and gold are rallying into that speech as if a dovish pivot is already locked in — MSTR (+7.1%) leads the book, tracking bitcoin's overnight reclaim of the $80,000 level after MSTR's rough stretch this month (the BTC-treasury markdown and MSCI-exclusion overhang we've flagged before). That's the real tension today: risk assets betting on rate-cut hope while the actual inflation and energy data argue the Fed has less room to deliver it. Worth a caveat too — several outlets are framing part of MSTR's pop as short-covering (permabear Peter Schiff says Michael Saylor “surrendered” by trimming the treasury to fund dividends), so we're calling this a relief rally to watch, not a confirmed reversal.
XLE and TMF are a good illustration of the crosscurrents: the same Iran-driven oil spike that's a tailwind for XLE is inflationary, which works against TMF's rate-cut thesis — two positions pulling in opposite directions off the same headline. TMF stays on our watch list; we'll revisit sizing once we have the market's actual read on Warsh's remarks, not before. No trade before this update.
Bottom line: SG is up +0.2% today heading into Warsh's keynote, with bitcoin's $80,000 reclaim doing the heavy lifting via MSTR while oil, inflation, and rates all pull in different directions underneath it. We'll have the market's real read on Jackson Hole in Monday's update.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, August 28, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.