Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Aug 18 published unit ($1,864). Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Aug 20) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).

Baseline note (Aug 21): today’s move is measured against the Aug 20 published update ($1,864); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Aug 18 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Aug 20) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,887 near the open, +1.2% versus Thursday's published update and +10.0% for August. The theme this week is what markets are calling the “Bessent put”: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Thursday the doubled long-bond buyback program could grow even larger and would “become routine” — the market is now trading Treasury intervention as a standing backstop rather than a one-time move, even though Bessent denies rates drove the decision and it isn't technically QE or yield-curve-control. The result has been a historic crypto and hard-asset meltup: bitcoin has gained roughly 20-24% since Monday, its biggest weekly gain since March 2024, on more than $3 billion in liquidated short positions.

That meltup is decoupled from — and in tech's case, running opposite to — the broader stock market. The 30-year Treasury yield backed up to roughly 5.25% this morning, nearly erasing Wednesday's decline, and capital-intensive AI/tech names stayed pressured after a weak Walmart sales miss, leaving broad equities on track for a weekly loss even as bitcoin and gold keep climbing. Trump's economic-warfare plan against Iran keeps the oil thread live for XLE.

NUGT (+10.8%) leads the book today, with MSTR (+7.2%) and NUGT (+10.8%) both this book's direct lines into that meltup. TMF (-0.2%) is the position most exposed to the yield backup, and XLE (-0.6%) is tracking the Iran/oil thread. ETN (-1.3%), PPA (-1.8%), NVDA (-0.4%), URA (+2.5%), EWW (+1.5%) and INDA (+0.3%) are mostly tracking the broader tepid-tech tape rather than the crypto/gold story.

Bottom line: no trade before this update. SG is up +1.2%, led by NUGT at +10.8% — the book's crypto and gold exposure (MSTR, NUGT) is the clearest read-through of the Bessent-put meltup, while TMF and the rest of the book are more exposed to the yield backup and tepid broader tape. Worth watching whether the “put” framing holds — Bessent denies this is yield-curve-control, and a yield backup this fast suggests the market isn't fully buying his framing either.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, August 21, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.