Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | $1,866 | 0.0% | +8.8% |
| 2026-08-18 | $1,845 | -1.1% | +7.5% |
| 2026-08-19 | $1,853 | +0.4% | +8.0% |
| 2026-08-20 ◀ Today | $1,864 | +0.6% | +8.6% |
Today = vs the Aug 18 published unit ($1,853). Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Aug 19) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).
Baseline note (Aug 20): today’s move is measured against the Aug 19 published update ($1,853); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $422.18 | -1.5% | +26.4% | 22.7% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $218.21 | -0.8% | +18.1% | 11.7% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $64.47 | +0.8% | +31.8% | 10.4% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $186.26 | +4.7% | -31.8% | 10.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $177.94 | -1.9% | +0.3% | 9.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $75.22 | +0.1% | -0.7% | 8.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $49.54 | 0.0% | -4.4% | 8.0% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $44.53 | +0.6% | -21.3% | 7.2% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $30.75 | -1.9% | -18.4% | 6.6% | WATCH 👀 |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $110.20 | +14.8% | -31.5% | 5.9% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Aug 18 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Aug 19) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense32.2%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy27.5%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.6%
- 🌎 International16.0%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.6%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 32.2% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $422.18 | $422.18 | 22.7% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $177.94 | $177.94 | 9.5% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 27.5% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $64.47 | $193.41 | 10.4% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $186.26 | $186.26 | 10.0% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $44.53 | $133.60 | 7.2% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.6% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $218.21 | $218.21 | 11.7% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $110.20 | $110.20 | 5.9% |
| 🌎 International — 16.0% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $75.22 | $150.44 | 8.1% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $49.54 | $148.62 | 8.0% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.6% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $30.75 | $122.98 | 6.6% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,864 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.6%▲ | — | -2.9% | |||
▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,864 near the open, +0.6% versus Wednesday's published update and +8.6% for August. This week's real story: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the government's long-bond buyback program (from $2B to $4B per operation) on Wednesday, a surprise intervention several outlets are calling quasi yield-curve-control that sent the 30-year Treasury yield from 5.34% down to 5.18% and triggered bitcoin's best single day since February — up 7.1%, reclaiming $68,000+, with over $1.4 billion in short positions liquidated. It also directly complicates Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's stated preference for letting markets do the tightening themselves — a Treasury-vs-Fed tension likely to come up at Jackson Hole, and an early test for Warsh's five-month-old leadership of the Fed.
That crypto surge is the standout story in this book too: MSTR (+14.8%) is up sharply on the broad bitcoin rally, helped by regulatory optimism (a Trump meeting with crypto executives and renewed momentum on the CLARITY Act) and news that MicroStrategy's CEO expects the company to resume bitcoin accumulation after a seven-week pause. NUGT (+4.7%) is also higher, extending gold's bid.
TMF (-1.9%) is pulling back today after Wednesday's outsized rally — we read this as a normal give-back after an unusually large single-day move rather than a reversal of the underlying Bessent-driven yield story. XLE (+0.8%) and URA (+0.6%) are modestly higher, while ETN (-1.5%), PPA (-1.9%) and NVDA (-0.8%) are the softer spots.
Bottom line: no trade before this update. SG is up +0.6%, led by MSTR's bitcoin-driven pop and gold's continued strength, with TMF consolidating after Wednesday's big move rather than confirming a durable new trend. Worth watching whether Bessent's intervention backfires the way some analysts warn — artificially suppressing yields risks reviving rate-hike bets down the line.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, August 20, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.