High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Aug 18 published unit ($1,360). Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Aug 19) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,257.26). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Aug 20): today’s move is measured against the Aug 19 published update ($1,360); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,257 for the current whole-share model. July is locked closed in the monthly table.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Aug 18 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Aug 19) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,395 on the current whole-share model, +2.6% versus Wednesday's published update. August MTD is +10.9% and 2026 YTD is -14.8% on the performance chain. This book is green today almost entirely on the strength of one position: bitcoin had its best day since February, up 7.1% and reclaiming $68,000+ with over $1.4 billion in short positions liquidated, after Treasury Secretary Bessent's surprise doubling of the long-bond buyback program pushed yields sharply lower Wednesday.

MSTR (+14.8%) is the standout, riding that bitcoin rally plus its own catalysts: regulatory optimism (a Trump meeting with crypto executives, renewed CLARITY Act momentum) and news that CEO Phong Le expects the company to resume bitcoin accumulation after a seven-week pause — the company holds 840,447 BTC after raising $333.7 million via share sales earlier this month. At roughly 32% of the book, that single position is doing most of the work today.

Everything else is softer: NBIS (-2.7%) and BE (-1.6%) are extending this week's AI-infrastructure pullback with still no distinct confirmed catalyst for the size of the move, and SOXL (-2.5%) and TQQQ (-2.1%) are both modestly lower — a reminder this rally is concentrated in crypto, not broad tech.

Bottom line: no portfolio change before this update. HR is up +2.6% today almost entirely on MSTR's bitcoin-driven surge, masking real weakness in the rest of the book (NBIS, BE, SOXL, TQQQ all red). Worth keeping in mind this is concentration risk showing up as a good day, not evidence the whole book is firing.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, August 20, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.