Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Aug 13 published unit ($1,866). Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:38 MDT); Monday Aug 17 had no build, so daily move is vs Friday's (Aug 14) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).

Baseline note (Aug 18): Monday Aug 17 had no build; today’s move is measured against the Aug 14 published update ($1,866); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Aug 13 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:38 MDT); Monday Aug 17 had no build, so daily move is vs Friday's (Aug 14) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,845 near the open, -1.1% versus Friday's published update (Monday had no build) and +7.5% for August. The driver this morning is the bond market: the 30-year Treasury yield pushed to roughly 5.33%, its highest level since 2007, as investors demand more compensation for long-dated duration. That's weighing broadly on growth and rate-sensitive assets heading into today's session, with markets also watching the FOMC minutes release later today for signal on the rate path.

The Strait of Hormuz tension we flagged Friday hasn't resolved — Brent crude is trading near $91/barrel this morning, continuing the same oil-supply risk from last week's tanker attacks. Higher oil on top of higher long-end yields is not a comfortable combination: it raises the inflation-persistence case at the same time it raises the cost of capital, which is exactly the setup that keeps a hawkish Fed in play.

The split in the book today tells the story cleanly. XLE (+3.1%) and NUGT (+1.1%) are catching the oil and gold bid the Hormuz/yield backdrop would predict, and MSTR (+2.2%) is bucking the broader risk-off tape. Everything sensitive to the yield spike is red: TMF (-3.8%) is the most exposed position in the book to a 30-year yield at an 18-year high, with NVDA (-2.2%), URA (-2.4%), ETN (-2.8%), PPA and EWW (-1.2% each) all softer on the same pressure.

Bottom line: no trade before this update. SG is down -1.1% on a day where rising long-end yields are the dominant cross-asset story, not a single-stock issue — TMF is structurally the position most exposed to this move, while XLE and NUGT are providing the offset the Hormuz/inflation backdrop would suggest they should. Worth watching TMF closely if the 30-year keeps climbing into a Fed that isn't confirming cuts.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.