Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Aug 13 published unit ($1,865). Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Aug 13) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).

Baseline note (Aug 14): today’s move is measured against the Aug 13 published update ($1,865); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Aug 13 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Aug 13) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

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Safe Growth is marked at $1,866 near the open, 0.0% versus Thursday's published update and +8.8% for August. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, the worst headline miss in over a year, though still up 5.0% year-over-year. Look closer and it's less alarming than the headline: core sales excluding autos and gas actually rose 0.3% for the month, per the NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor. The miss is concentrated in autos and online spending after a tax-refund-fueled spike in June, not a broad consumer pullback.

The bigger story overnight is a real escalation in the Iran conflict. Two tankers owned by Abu Dhabi's state oil company ADNOC were hit by drone attacks Thursday evening while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE's Foreign Ministry blamed Iran's Revolutionary Guard directly, calling it "acts of piracy" and a "flagrant violation" of UN freedom-of-navigation principles. This is a direct attack on a Gulf ally's vessels, not just US-Iran friction.

The US is now threatening to blockade Iran indefinitely in response. The strait is effectively closed to commercial shipping — a live tracker shows just one ship transiting on Aug 9 versus roughly 73 per day under normal conditions. That's a direct, sustained tailwind for XLE, and it reinforces the same theme Bob Elliott flagged earlier this week: the world is burning through oil stockpiles to cover the shortfall, and that cushion may be thinner than headline inventory data suggests.

Bottom line: no trade before this update. SG is essentially flat today (0.0%) despite the seriousness of the overnight news, and that's not the market shrugging it off — it's offsetting moves inside the book. NUGT and XLE are catching the safe-haven and oil bid the escalation would predict, while ETN, TMF, and MSTR are softer on the same risk-off pressure. Today's retail sales miss is more noise than signal once you look at core spending, but the Iran/Hormuz escalation is real and getting more serious, not less — direct attacks on a third country's tankers raise the stakes beyond a US-Iran standoff.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, August 14, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.