High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Aug 13 published unit ($1,489). Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Aug 13) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,257.26). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Aug 14): today’s move is measured against the Aug 13 published update ($1,489); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,257 for the current whole-share model. July is locked closed in the monthly table.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Aug 13 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Aug 13) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,490 on the current whole-share model, +0.1% versus Thursday's published update. August MTD is +18.5% and 2026 YTD is -9.0% on the performance chain. July retail sales missed headline expectations (-0.6% month-over-month, the worst in over a year) but core sales ex autos/gas actually rose 0.3% — the underlying consumer picture is healthier than the headline number suggests, generally a neutral-to-supportive backdrop for this book's growth exposure.

The more important overnight development: two UAE-owned oil tankers were hit by drone attacks transiting the Strait of Hormuz, an attack the UAE has explicitly blamed on Iran and called piracy. The US is now threatening an indefinite blockade of Iran in response. This broadens the conflict beyond a US-Iran standoff into a wider Gulf security crisis, with the strait now essentially fully closed to shipping.

That matters most for MSTR and broad risk sentiment: a widening Middle East conflict is a classic risk-off trigger, competing with the disinflation narrative from earlier this week for the market's attention. SOXL and TQQQ are more exposed to how equities broadly digest this than to anything Iran-specific, while BE and NBIS continue trading on their own fundamentals independent of the geopolitical backdrop.

Bottom line: no portfolio change before this update. HR is essentially flat today (+0.1%), and that's a mix, not indifference to the news — SOXL and TQQQ are still green while MSTR and BE are softer on risk-off pressure, roughly netting out. We're not going to soften how serious the overnight escalation is — a direct attack on a third country's tankers is a real widening of the conflict, and it's the dominant story today, not a footnote to retail sales.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, August 14, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.