Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | $1,853 | -0.2% | +8.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | $1,857 | +0.2% | +8.2% |
| 2026-08-12 | $1,889 | +1.7% | +10.1% |
| 2026-08-13 ◀ Today | $1,865 | -1.3% | +8.7% |
Today = vs the Aug 12 published unit ($1,889). Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Aug 12) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).
Baseline note (Aug 13): today’s move is measured against the Aug 12 published update ($1,889); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $456.80 | -3.3% | +36.8% | 24.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $225.99 | +1.7% | +22.3% | 12.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $184.24 | -0.5% | +3.8% | 9.9% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $60.60 | +0.1% | +23.9% | 9.7% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $156.54 | -6.6% | -42.7% | 8.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $76.19 | -0.5% | +0.6% | 8.2% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $50.08 | +0.1% | -3.3% | 8.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $45.38 | +0.1% | -19.8% | 7.3% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $31.21 | +0.5% | -17.2% | 6.7% | WATCH 👀 |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $96.45 | -0.2% | -40.1% | 5.2% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Aug 12 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Thu, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Wednesday's (Aug 12) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense34.4%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy25.4%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.3%
- 🌎 International16.2%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.7%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 34.4% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $456.80 | $456.80 | 24.5% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $184.24 | $184.24 | 9.9% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 25.4% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $60.60 | $181.81 | 9.7% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $156.54 | $156.54 | 8.4% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $45.38 | $136.14 | 7.3% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.3% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $225.99 | $225.99 | 12.1% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $96.45 | $96.45 | 5.2% |
| 🌎 International — 16.2% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $76.19 | $152.38 | 8.2% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $50.08 | $150.24 | 8.1% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.7% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $31.21 | $124.84 | 6.7% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,865 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.7%▲ | — | -2.8% | |||
▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,865 near the open, -1.3% versus Wednesday's published update and +8.7% for August. NUGT and ETN are giving back a slice of this week's sharp gains today, which is the main drag on the book — normal digestion after strong multi-day runs in both, not a change in the underlying gold or infrastructure thesis.
Today's data point is July's Producer Price Index: final demand prices were unchanged (0.0%) month-over-month, with the 12-month unadjusted rate at 4.7%. Core prices (excluding food, energy, and trade services) rose 0.4% for the month. It's a benign print that extends Tuesday's cooler CPI into the wholesale-price data — two straight days of disinflation evidence at both the consumer and producer level, separate from the oil-driven inflation risk we've flagged all week.
Because the Iran/Hormuz standoff has not eased. Iran's foreign minister warned the US risks a "bigger miscalculation" over the strait, Tehran explicitly rejected Trump's claim of "total control" over the waterway, and Iran says there are no ceasefire-extension talks underway. A drone also hit a US-owned tanker at an Egyptian port overnight. We're not going to manufacture a calming narrative the headlines don't support.
The more important structural signal for XLE: the New York Times reports Gulf oil producers are now spending billions to build export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely — a sign the industry itself expects this risk premium to outlast any single ceasefire. That argues for treating today's energy strength as more than a short-term trade. Bottom line: no trade before this update.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, August 13, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.