Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | $1,856 | +4.0% | +8.2% |
| 2026-08-10 | $1,853 | -0.2% | +8.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | $1,857 | +0.2% | +8.2% |
| 2026-08-12 ◀ Today | $1,889 | +1.7% | +10.1% |
Today = vs the Aug 11 published unit ($1,857). Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Aug 11) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).
Baseline note (Aug 12): today’s move is measured against the Aug 11 published update ($1,857); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $472.28 | +4.9% | +41.4% | 25.0% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $222.26 | +0.7% | +20.2% | 11.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $185.20 | +0.5% | +4.4% | 9.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $60.53 | +0.3% | +23.8% | 9.6% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $167.62 | +4.5% | -38.6% | 8.9% | HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $76.57 | -0.6% | +1.1% | 8.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $50.05 | -0.2% | -3.4% | 7.9% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $45.33 | +0.8% | -19.9% | 7.2% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $31.07 | +0.6% | -17.6% | 6.6% | WATCH 👀 |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $96.67 | -0.4% | -40.0% | 5.1% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Aug 11 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Aug 11) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense34.8%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy25.7%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin16.9%
- 🌎 International16.1%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.6%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 34.8% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $472.28 | $472.28 | 25.0% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $185.20 | $185.20 | 9.8% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 25.7% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $60.53 | $181.60 | 9.6% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $167.62 | $167.62 | 8.9% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $45.33 | $135.98 | 7.2% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 16.9% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $222.26 | $222.26 | 11.8% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $96.67 | $96.67 | 5.1% |
| 🌎 International — 16.1% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $76.57 | $153.14 | 8.1% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $50.05 | $150.16 | 7.9% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.6% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $31.07 | $124.28 | 6.6% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,889 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +10.1%▲ | — | -1.6% | |||
▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,889 near the open, +1.7% versus Tuesday's published update and +10.1% for August. Today's headline event is the July CPI report: inflation cooled to 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June and below the 3.5% consensus estimate — the second straight month of deceleration.
The relief is real but partial. Wage growth slowed even more, to 3.2% year-over-year, the lowest since 2021, meaning inflation has now outpaced wages for four straight months. September rate-hike odds retreated slightly on the print but stayed close to 50/50 as of Tuesday per CME FedWatch, so this print eased the acute fear from yesterday's oil-driven spike without erasing it.
The most useful line came from J.P. Morgan's David Kelly, who tied the pace of further disinflation directly to "how long it takes to return to normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz" — which puts our own oil thesis right at the center of the Fed debate. Energy remains a bright spot in that context: crude has held near multi-month highs through the CPI print, a continued tailwind for XLE specifically.
Gold is trading near seven-week highs as investors hedge both inflation and geopolitical risk simultaneously — a reminder that a cooler CPI print doesn't fully resolve the oil-driven uncertainty NUGT and URA are also pricing in. ETN is leading the book today, with the broader industrial and metals sleeve catching a bid on the rate-relief. Bottom line: no trade before this update.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.