High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Aug 11 published unit ($1,362). Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Aug 11) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,257.26). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Aug 12): today’s move is measured against the Aug 11 published update ($1,362); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,257 for the current whole-share model. July is locked closed in the monthly table.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Aug 11 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Aug 11) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,447 on the current whole-share model, +6.2% versus Tuesday's published update. August MTD is +15.1% and 2026 YTD is -11.6% on the performance chain. July CPI printed cooler than expected this morning — 3.4% year-over-year versus a 3.5% consensus and down from 3.5% in June — which is constructive for the leveraged and high-multiple names in this book after yesterday's rate-hike-fear pressure on SOXL and TQQQ, both sharply higher today.

NBIS is the standout: Q2 revenue hit $582.3 million, up 454% year-over-year, beating consensus, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time — a real profitability milestone, not just a growth story. GAAP EPS swung to a loss on higher depreciation and stock-based compensation tied to the AI-infrastructure buildout, which is typical for a company scaling this fast and not a red flag on its own.

BE is also sharply higher today on fresh analyst reaction to its July 28 print: RBC said Bloom Energy beat even the bullish Q2 estimates and raised 2026 revenue guidance about 12.5%, citing a demand ramp from large data centers, while Mizuho upgraded the stock to Outperform after the recent pullback, citing stronger-than-expected revenue, shipments, and margins.

The macro backdrop is still a genuine cross-current, not a clean green light: wage growth slowed to 3.2% year-over-year (weakest since 2021), that follows Friday's weak jobs report, and September Fed-hike odds only eased slightly and remain close to 50/50. J.P. Morgan's chief global strategist tied further disinflation directly to how quickly Hormuz traffic normalizes, keeping this book's backdrop linked to the same Iran/oil story from Tuesday. Bottom line: no portfolio change before this update — today's strength is broad-based and fundamentally supported, not just short-covering.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.