Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $1,784 | +4.0% | +4.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | $1,856 | +4.0% | +8.2% |
| 2026-08-10 | $1,853 | -0.2% | +8.0% |
| 2026-08-11 ◀ Today | $1,857 | +0.2% | +8.2% |
Today = vs the Aug 10 published unit ($1,853). Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Aug 10) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).
Baseline note (Aug 11): today’s move is measured against the Aug 10 published update ($1,853); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $450.37 | -0.1% | +34.8% | 24.3% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $220.73 | -1.2% | +19.4% | 11.9% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $184.36 | -0.2% | +3.9% | 9.9% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $60.37 | +3.1% | +23.4% | 9.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $160.32 | +3.6% | -41.3% | 8.6% | HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $77.05 | -0.2% | +1.7% | 8.3% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $50.18 | -0.1% | -3.1% | 8.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $44.97 | +0.1% | -20.5% | 7.3% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $30.89 | -0.6% | -18.1% | 6.7% | WATCH 👀 |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $97.09 | -2.2% | -39.7% | 5.2% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Aug 10 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Aug 10) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense34.2%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy25.7%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.1%
- 🌎 International16.4%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.7%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 34.2% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $450.37 | $450.37 | 24.3% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $184.36 | $184.36 | 9.9% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 25.7% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $60.37 | $181.11 | 9.8% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $160.32 | $160.32 | 8.6% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $44.97 | $134.91 | 7.3% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.1% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $220.73 | $220.73 | 11.9% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $97.09 | $97.09 | 5.2% |
| 🌎 International — 16.4% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $77.05 | $154.10 | 8.3% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $50.18 | $150.54 | 8.1% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.7% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $30.89 | $123.54 | 6.7% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,857 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.2%▲ | — | -3.3% | |||
▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,857 near the open, +0.2% versus Monday's published update and +8.2% for August. The overnight story is oil: crude has surged more than 10% over the past week as hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz keep fading, and Brent is pushing back toward $90 a barrel. That is a direct tailwind for XLE.
The setback came from President Trump, who said Monday he would seek compensation from Iran for war damage as part of any peace deal — a new sticking point that pushes a resolution further out, not closer. Tehran has said it won't reopen the strait without being compensated itself, so both sides are now negotiating over money as well as the waterway itself.
There's also a second front developing: Iranian-backed Houthi rebels renewed attacks on Yemen's Red Sea port cities this week, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the main alternate shipping route now that Hormuz is effectively closed. That raises the stakes for oil logistics beyond the Gulf alone.
The elevated oil price is reviving inflation concerns and boosting bets on a US interest-rate increase rather than a cut — a shift from the falling-yield backdrop that drove last week's rally. That's a genuine headwind for TMF specifically, even as NUGT and URA keep finding support from gold's own safe-haven bid amid the escalation. Bottom line: no trade before this update, but this is a real regime shift to watch, not noise.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.