High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Aug 10 published unit ($1,381). Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Aug 10) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,257.26). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Aug 11): today’s move is measured against the Aug 10 published update ($1,381); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,257 for the current whole-share model. July is locked closed in the monthly table.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Aug 10 published mark for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~7:30 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Aug 10) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,362 on the current whole-share model, -1.4% versus Monday's published update. August MTD is +8.3% and 2026 YTD is -16.8% on the performance chain. The macro backdrop shifted overnight: oil's surge past $88-90 a barrel on the stalled Hormuz talks is reviving bets on a Fed rate hike rather than a cut, which is a different setup than the falling-yield tailwind that lifted SOXL and TQQQ last week.

The proximate trigger was Trump's new demand Monday that Iran pay compensation for war damage before any deal on reopening the strait — a real step back, not a softening, and Tehran has made its own compensation demand in return. Houthi attacks on Yemen's Red Sea ports this week add a second shipping-lane risk on top of Hormuz.

For a book built on semiconductors, broad tech, and bitcoin beta, a rate-hike-leaning tape is the variable to watch most closely into Wednesday's CPI print (8:30am ET) — higher-for-longer rate expectations are historically a harder environment for high-multiple growth and leveraged tech than a falling-yield backdrop. BE and NBIS are both green today, holding up on fundamentals rather than the macro cross-currents; NBIS reports its own Q2 results Wednesday morning, hours ahead of that same CPI print.

Bottom line: no portfolio change before this update. We'd rather flag the shift honestly — oil-driven inflation risk reviving hike odds is a real cross-current for this book, not a reason to panic, but it's the thing to watch alongside CPI this week.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.