Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $1,716 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-08-04 | $1,784 | +4.0% | +4.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | $1,856 | +4.0% | +8.2% |
| 2026-08-10 ◀ Today | $1,853 | -0.2% | +8.0% |
Weekend = vs the Aug 7 published unit ($1,856). Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:30 MDT); this is a WEEKEND RETURN vs Friday's (Aug 7) published update since markets were closed Sat/Sun; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).
Baseline note (Aug 10): today’s move is a weekend return measured against the Aug 7 published update ($1,856); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Weekend | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $450.98 | +0.3% | +35.0% | 24.3% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $223.39 | 0.0% | +20.9% | 12.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $184.66 | +1.5% | +4.0% | 10.0% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $58.57 | +1.8% | +19.8% | 9.5% | HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $154.81 | -3.6% | -43.3% | 8.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $77.22 | -0.3% | +1.9% | 8.3% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $50.21 | -0.4% | -3.1% | 8.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $44.93 | +1.5% | -20.6% | 7.3% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $31.07 | -0.8% | -17.6% | 6.7% | WATCH 👀 |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $99.29 | -4.2% | -38.3% | 5.4% | HOLD ✅ |
Weekend = vs the Aug 7 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:30 MDT); this is a WEEKEND RETURN vs Friday's (Aug 7) published update since markets were closed Sat/Sun; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense34.3%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy25.1%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.4%
- 🌎 International16.5%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.7%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 34.3% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $450.98 | $450.98 | 24.3% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $184.66 | $184.66 | 10.0% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 25.1% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $58.57 | $175.71 | 9.5% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $154.81 | $154.81 | 8.4% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $44.93 | $134.79 | 7.3% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.4% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $223.39 | $223.39 | 12.1% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $99.29 | $99.29 | 5.4% |
| 🌎 International — 16.5% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $77.22 | $154.43 | 8.3% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $50.21 | $150.63 | 8.1% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.7% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $31.07 | $124.30 | 6.7% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,853 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.0%▲ | — | -3.5% | |||
▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth opens the week at $1,853, essentially flat (-0.2%) over the weekend versus Friday's published update, and still up +8.0% for August. This is a pause, not a reversal — the book is digesting last week's gold-led rally rather than giving it back.
The week ahead is data-heavy: Wednesday brings the CPI print (headline inflation, forecast 3.4% vs 3.5% prior), Thursday brings jobless claims and PPI, and Friday brings retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment read. CPI is the one that matters most for URA and TMF — a cooler print keeps the falling-yield tailwind from last week alive; a hot one could reverse it quickly.
On earnings: the AI-capex story so far this season has been "demand confirmed, funding still gating." Big Tech's hyperscalers have kept spending aggressively on AI infrastructure while free cash flow gets tighter, which is exactly the dynamic that makes NVDA's chip-demand story durable but keeps the pacing of that spending a real variable to watch.
On the geopolitical side: we're not seeing a clean de-escalation in the Iran conflict ahead of the midterms. As of Sunday, Iran set six conditions for US diplomatic engagement (including an end to threats and sanctions), and Trump described the US as only "semi-negotiating" with Tehran. That keeps a Hormuz-linked oil premium in play for XLE rather than resolving it — we'd rather tell you the honest, unresolved picture than a calming narrative that isn't supported by this week's headlines.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, August 10, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.