Recent Performance — Last 6 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $1,733 | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| 2026-07-24 | $1,726 | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| 2026-07-27 | $1,726 | 0.0% | -0.7% |
| 2026-07-28 | $1,673 | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| 2026-07-29 | $1,663 | -0.6% | -4.3% |
| 2026-07-30 ◀ Today | $1,675 | +0.7% | -3.6% |
Today = vs the Jul 29 published unit ($1,663). Live intraday marks (Thu, near the open ~9:08 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly. Jul MTD vs Jun 30 close ($1,738.14).
Baseline note (Jul 30): today’s move is measured against the Jul 29 published unit of $1,663 — the same figure shown in yesterday’s update, so the number you last saw carries forward with no basis step.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $382.22 | +2.2% | +14.4% | 22.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $194.62 | +1.6% | +5.3% | 11.6% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $58.23 | -1.3% | +19.1% | 10.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $169.97 | -2.0% | -4.2% | 10.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $76.72 | +1.0% | +1.3% | 9.2% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $49.62 | +0.9% | -4.2% | 8.9% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $30.95 | -5.4% | -17.9% | 7.4% | WATCH 👀 |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $39.18 | +2.8% | -30.7% | 7.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $114.00 | +7.8% | -58.2% | 6.8% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $96.15 | -0.6% | -40.3% | 5.7% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Jul 29 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live intraday marks (Thu, near the open ~9:08 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense33.0%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy24.2%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.4%
- 🌎 International18.0%
- 🏦 Long Bonds7.4%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 33.0% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $382.22 | $382.22 | 22.8% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $169.97 | $169.97 | 10.1% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 24.2% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $58.23 | $174.68 | 10.4% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $39.18 | $117.53 | 7.0% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $114.00 | $114.00 | 6.8% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.4% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $194.62 | $194.62 | 11.6% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $96.15 | $96.15 | 5.7% |
| 🌎 International — 18.0% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $76.72 | $153.43 | 9.2% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $49.62 | $148.84 | 8.9% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 7.4% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $30.95 | $123.78 | 7.4% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,675 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -3.6%▲ | — | -12.8% | ||||
▲ Current month through today; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Safe Growth is higher this morning to $1,675 a unit, or +0.7% versus the $1,663 figure investors saw in yesterday's email. This is measured from the printed update price, not close-to-close. ETN, NUGT, NVDA, URA, EWW, and INDA are doing the work; PPA, TMF, XLE, and MSTR are the drags.
The commentary focus today is the split inside the AI trade. Microsoft gave investors the cleanest proof point: Azure growth accelerated, Copilot seats expanded, and the market rewarded AI spending that is already showing revenue pull-through. That helps NVDA and the broader AI sleeve, even though SG is diversified enough that the move is not just a chip trade.
The Fed is still not a tailwind. Rates were held at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the dissent was toward hikes, not cuts. That matters for TMF and for any long-duration asset. The bond sleeve remains the risk watch, while energy and metals still give us inflation/geopolitical ballast if oil and real-rate pressure stay elevated.
No trades in Safe Growth today. The key is that yesterday's fear has become more selective: Microsoft validated productive AI capex, while Meta showed investors will punish spending without enough near-term cash-flow proof. Amazon and Apple tonight, plus Friday's reaction, decide whether this rebound has confirmation or is just a relief bounce.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, July 30, 2026
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.