Recent Performance — Last 6 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $1,734 | +1.8% | -0.2% |
| 2026-07-23 | $1,733 | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| 2026-07-24 | $1,726 | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| 2026-07-27 | $1,726 | 0.0% | -0.7% |
| 2026-07-28 | $1,673 | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| 2026-07-29 ◀ Today | $1,663 | -0.6% | -4.3% |
Today = vs the Jul 28 published unit ($1,673). Live intraday marks (Wed, near the open ~8:14 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly. Jul MTD vs Jun 30 close ($1,738.14).
Baseline note (Jul 29): today’s move is measured against the Jul 28 published unit of $1,673 — the same figure shown in yesterday’s update, so the number you last saw carries forward with no basis step.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $374.02 | -1.4% | +12.0% | 22.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $191.54 | -1.0% | +3.6% | 11.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $59.01 | +0.8% | +20.6% | 10.6% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $173.51 | -1.7% | -2.2% | 10.4% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $75.98 | -0.5% | +0.3% | 9.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $49.19 | +0.3% | -5.0% | 8.9% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $32.70 | +0.6% | -13.2% | 7.9% | WATCH 👀 |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $38.11 | -0.6% | -32.6% | 6.9% | HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $105.80 | -3.9% | -61.2% | 6.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $96.72 | +3.4% | -39.9% | 5.8% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Jul 28 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live intraday marks (Wed, near the open ~8:14 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense32.9%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy23.9%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.3%
- 🌎 International18.0%
- 🏦 Long Bonds7.9%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 32.9% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $374.02 | $374.02 | 22.5% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $173.51 | $173.51 | 10.4% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 23.9% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $59.01 | $177.02 | 10.6% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $38.11 | $114.33 | 6.9% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $105.80 | $105.80 | 6.4% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.3% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $191.54 | $191.54 | 11.5% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $96.72 | $96.72 | 5.8% |
| 🌎 International — 18.0% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $75.98 | $151.96 | 9.1% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $49.19 | $147.56 | 8.9% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 7.9% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $32.70 | $130.82 | 7.9% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,663 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -4.3%▲ | — | -13.4% | ||||
▲ Current month through today; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Safe Growth is down modestly this morning to $1,663 a unit, or -0.6% versus the $1,673 figure investors saw in yesterday's email. This is deliberately not a close-to-close return. We are measuring from the printed update price, so the daily line matches the customer experience. NUGT, PPA, ETN, NVDA, URA, and EWW are soft; MSTR, XLE, TMF, and INDA are cushioning the book.
The macro setup is cleaner than yesterday but still tense. Stocks opened lower ahead of today's Fed decision, with the market focused on hold-versus-hike risk rather than cuts. Oil is also back in the headlines after renewed Iran escalation, which helps explain why XLE is one of the few SG offsets this morning while long-duration and AI-linked assets remain under pressure.
The AI question has shifted from 'is demand real?' to 'can cash flow catch the capex bill?' Business Insider framed tonight's Microsoft and Meta reports, plus Amazon tomorrow, as the hyperscaler test investors care about most. The bullish version is Gavin Baker's point: if GPU compute is still scarce and legacy contracts were too cheap, repricing can lift revenue as contracts roll and make the buildout more financeable.
No trades in Safe Growth today. We are not dismissing the risk: if Microsoft, Meta, or Amazon show weak demand or another free-cash-flow shock, the pressure can continue. But if they show demand, pricing power, and capex discipline, Tuesday's washout looks more like forced deleveraging than a broken AI cycle.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.