Recent Performance — Last 6 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $858 | +0.1% | -14.5% |
| 2026-07-23 | $849 | -1.0% | -15.4% |
| 2026-07-24 | $819 | -3.6% | -18.4% |
| 2026-07-27 | $815 | -0.5% | -18.8% |
| 2026-07-28 | $746 | -8.4% | -25.6% |
| 2026-07-29 ◀ Today | $746 | 0.0% | -25.6% |
Today = vs the Jul 28 published unit ($746). Live intraday marks (Wed, near the open ~8:14 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly. Jul MTD vs Jun 30 close ($1,003.19). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.
Baseline note (Jul 29): today’s move is measured against the Jul 28 published unit of $746 — the same figure shown in yesterday’s update, so the number you last saw carries forward with no basis step.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Rotation | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $96.72 | +3.4% | +2.0% | 30.9% | HOLD ✅ |
| CASH | Cash | — | 0.0% | — | 30.3% | DRY POWDER |
| SOXL | 3x Semiconductors | $100.83 | -4.4% | -43.9% | 19.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| TQQQ | 3x Nasdaq-100 | $59.73 | -0.7% | -20.6% | 19.2% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Jul 28 published unit. Since Rotation = vs the Jul 14 rotation fills (SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78), not the Jan 22 entry. Weight = % of unit. Live intraday marks (Wed, near the open ~8:14 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🤖 Semiconductors19.5%
- 💻 Broad Tech19.2%
- ₿ Bitcoin30.9%
- 🏦 Cash30.3%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Semiconductors — 19.5% | |||||
| SOXL | 3x Semiconductors | 1.4453 | $100.83 | $145.73 | 19.5% |
| 💻 Broad Tech — 19.2% | |||||
| TQQQ | 3x Nasdaq-100 | 2.4051 | $59.73 | $143.66 | 19.2% |
| ₿ Bitcoin — 30.9% | |||||
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 2.3851 | $96.72 | $230.67 | 30.9% |
| 🏦 Cash — 30.3% | |||||
| CASH | Cash | — | — | $226.06 | 30.3% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $746 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | +127 | +17 | -11 | +29 | -20 | +1 | +6 | +22 | -3 | +34 | -0 | -19 | 234% |
| 22 | +10 | -4 | +25 | +4 | -8 | -17 | +32 | +1 | -15 | +14 | -13 | +34 | -12% |
| 23 | +15 | +1 | +13 | -9 | +21 | +1 | +7 | -4 | -1 | -0 | +27 | +23 | 131% |
| 24 | -8 | +22 | +15 | -16 | +13 | -7 | +0 | -10 | +8 | -0 | +32 | -2 | 43% |
| 25 | +8 | -23 | -18 | +3 | +14 | +19 | -9 | +14 | +27 | -12 | -10 | -2 | 3% |
| 26 | +6%* | -16%* | -13%* | +25.5% | +12.3% | -10.4% | -25.6%▲ | — | -26.7% | ||||
▲ Current month through today; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Risk Disclosure
High Risk holds leveraged and crypto-linked positions: SOXL (3x semiconductors) and TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100) reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher — they can lose value fast. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
High Risk is essentially flat this morning at $746 a unit, or 0.0% versus the $746 figure printed in yesterday's email. That basis matters: this is not a close-to-close return. SOXL is still down about 4.4% from yesterday's published mark, but MSTR is up about 3.4% and cash remains about 30% of the unit. The book is bruised, but we still have ammunition.
The market's AI objection is now about funding, not usefulness. Investors are punishing the semiconductor complex because they want proof that hyperscaler spending can turn into near-term revenue and cash flow. Tonight's Microsoft and Meta calls, followed by Amazon tomorrow, are the real test. If management teams raise capex without showing monetization, semis can stay under pressure.
The bullish counter is that compute scarcity may be doing the work for us. If older GPU contracts were priced below today's clearing level, contract resets can push hyperscaler revenue higher and help cash flow catch up to spending. That is the important difference between an AI bubble that needs endless debt and an AI infrastructure cycle that can reprice its way into financeability.
No trades yet. We are keeping the cash sleeve intact until the earnings fork clears, especially Amazon and Friday's market reaction. If demand, pricing power, and financing all check out, the SOXL drawdown can become the entry window we saved cash for. If they fail, the cash prevents us from forcing a bad trade into leverage.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 14, 2026 · Rotation (11) | ||||
| MRVL · AI Chips | CLOSE | $231.57 | 1 | +178.7% |
| VST · Power/AI | CLOSE | $161.00 | 1 | +0.4% |
| RKLB · Space | CLOSE | $78.76 | 1 | -10.5% |
| PLTR · AI/Defense | CLOSE | $123.61 | 1 | -25.5% |
| IONQ · Quantum | CLOSE | $40.04 | 2 | -18.8% |
| UEC · Uranium | CLOSE | $10.30 | 4 | -48.1% |
| BMNR · Crypto Treasury | CLOSE | $15.42 | 3 | -46.6% |
| OKLO · Nuclear SMR | CLOSE | $46.96 | 1 | -48.4% |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | ADD | $94.78 | 1.3851 | Open |
| SOXL · 3x Semiconductors | BUY | $179.62 | 1.4453 | Open |
| TQQQ · 3x Nasdaq-100 | BUY | $75.19 | 2.4051 | Open |
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (9) | ||||
| VST · Power/AI | BUY | $160.36 | 1 | Closed Jul 14 |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| PLTR · AI/Defense | BUY | $165.90 | 1 | Closed Jul 14 |
| MRVL · AI Chips | BUY | $83.10 | 1 | Closed Jul 14 |
| BMNR · Crypto Treasury | BUY | $28.90 | 3 | Closed Jul 14 |
| RKLB · Space | BUY | $87.98 | 1 | Closed Jul 14 |
| IONQ · Quantum | BUY | $49.33 | 2 | Closed Jul 14 |
| UEC · Uranium | BUY | $19.86 | 4 | Closed Jul 14 |
| OKLO · Nuclear SMR | BUY | $90.93 | 1 | Closed Jul 14 |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.