Recent Performance — Last 6 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | $1,727 | +0.2% | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-13 | $1,720 | -0.4% | -1.1% |
| 2026-07-14 | $1,728 | +0.5% | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-15 | $1,728 | -0.4% | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-16 | $1,684 | -2.5% | -3.1% |
| 2026-07-17 ◀ Today | $1,660 | -1.4% | -4.5% |
Today = vs the Jul 16 published unit ($1,684). Live intraday marks (Fri, near the open ~7:33 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly. Jul MTD vs Jun 30 close ($1,738.14).
Baseline note (Jul 17): today’s move is measured against the Jul 16 published unit of $1,684 — the same figure shown in yesterday’s update, so the number you last saw carries forward with no basis step.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $383.26 | -2.9% | +14.7% | 23.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $202.12 | -2.3% | +9.3% | 12.2% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $57.74 | +1.4% | +18.1% | 10.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $167.72 | -0.5% | -5.5% | 10.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $74.26 | -1.2% | -2.0% | 8.9% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $48.88 | +0.3% | -5.6% | 8.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $33.49 | +1.7% | -11.2% | 8.1% | WATCH 👀 |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $37.84 | -3.2% | -33.1% | 6.8% | HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $99.44 | -3.9% | -63.6% | 6.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $91.47 | -2.8% | -43.2% | 5.5% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Jul 16 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live intraday marks (Fri, near the open ~7:33 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense33.2%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy23.3%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.7%
- 🌎 International17.8%
- 🏦 Long Bonds8.1%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 33.2% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $383.26 | $383.26 | 23.1% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $167.72 | $167.72 | 10.1% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 23.3% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $57.74 | $173.22 | 10.4% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $37.84 | $113.52 | 6.8% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $99.44 | $99.44 | 6.0% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.7% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $202.12 | $202.12 | 12.2% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $91.47 | $91.47 | 5.5% |
| 🌎 International — 17.8% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $74.26 | $148.52 | 8.9% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $48.88 | $146.64 | 8.8% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 8.1% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $33.49 | $133.96 | 8.1% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,660 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | — | — | — | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -4.5%▲ | — | -13.6% | ||||
▲ Current month through today; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Monthly figures are shown only for months we tracked and published daily — our daily archive begins 15 April 2026, so Jan–Mar are marked — rather than estimated. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals, no filled-in gaps. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; for months before that we show no monthly figure rather than an estimate. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
The chip selloff carried into Friday's open and pulled Safe Growth down about 1.4%. Korea's market was closed for a holiday, so Taiwan and Japan drove the overnight rout, with the Nikkei sliding into correction. NVDA fell roughly 2.3% and MSTR near 2.8% even after TSMC posted another strong quarter. This reads as crowded-AI fatigue, not a break in demand.
The ballast did its job. XLE rose more than 1% as crude pushed higher on fresh Strait of Hormuz risk, with reports Iran asked Houthi forces to prepare Red Sea disruption. TMF firmed a touch as money edged toward bonds. The metals sleeve lagged: NUGT fell about 4% and URA about 3% as risk came off broadly.
TMF stays on WATCH. Rising oil is putting inflation back in the conversation, and futures now price a possible Fed hike as early as October, with the July 29 meeting almost certainly a hold. That is the wrong setup for three-times long Treasuries, even on a soft-growth day.
No trades. A ten-sleeve book is built to spread a chip-led drawdown across positions that do not move together, and today it did. We would rather hold the diversified slate through this than chase the names doing the damage.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, July 17, 2026
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.