High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs the Jul 31 close unit ($1,257). Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:32 MDT); August MTD starts from Friday's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,257.26). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Aug 3): today’s move and August MTD are measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,257 for the current whole-share model. July is now locked closed in the monthly table.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Jul 31 close unit for positions already held. Since Fill = vs SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78 / BE $205.15 / NBIS $172.19. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Mon, near the open ~7:32 MDT); August MTD starts from Friday's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk is marked at $1,203 on the current whole-share model, down -4.3% versus Friday's official month-end close. July is now locked closed at -22.0%; August opens at -4.3%. The weakness is concentrated: SOXL is down about -9.9%, NBIS -6.2%, and BE -5.9%.

This is the hyperscaler-versus-supplier split. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta can trade up because investors still believe the AI demand is real and the giants have the balance sheets to fund it. Semis can trade down at the same time because the market is questioning who captures the economics after the capex bill, financing structures, inventory, and margin pressure show up.

Korea is the accelerant. Samsung and SK Hynix are the global memory/HBM pressure valve, so a KOSPI liquidation hits U.S. semi beta first. SOXL is not just a chip bet today; it is a levered expression of that global unwind. BE and NBIS are also being marked with the AI-infrastructure complex, so the new power/compute sleeves are getting repriced even though the long-term bottleneck thesis is intact.

Trump did not fully 'TACO' the tariff regime away. The market is sniffing delay/negotiation relief, but the biggest tariff burden since the post-war era is still a tax on margins and inflation expectations. Bottom line: HR is down because it owns the exact high-beta AI supply-chain exposure being liquidated. No portfolio change before this update; the watch is whether U.S. semis stabilize after the Korea forced-selling wave.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Monday, August 3, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.