High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 6 Sessions

Today = vs the Jul 23 published unit ($849). Live intraday marks (Fri, near the open ~7:44 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly. Jul MTD vs Jun 30 close ($1,003.19). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Jul 24): today’s move is measured against the Jul 23 published unit of $849 — the same figure shown in yesterday’s update, so the number you last saw carries forward with no basis step.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Jul 23 published unit. Since Rotation = vs the Jul 14 rotation fills (SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78), not the Jan 22 entry. Weight = % of unit. Live intraday marks (Fri, near the open ~7:44 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk took the semiconductor fade squarely on the chin Friday, down about 3.6% to $819 a unit. SOXL, our 3x semiconductor line, fell more than 7% as the memory complex sold off; TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100) dropped about 3.4% and MSTR about 3.6% with bitcoin near $65,000. That is three-times leverage doing exactly what it does on a red day.

The chip weakness is real but narrow. The SOX index is now more than 20% off its June high after Goldman cut SK Hynix on expected 2026 memory-price weakness, even as Micron said the same week that its high-bandwidth memory is sold out well into 2027. TSMC and Intel both beat earnings this month and still faded. The tape has decided AI strength is the floor and is now scrutinizing the bill, with hyperscaler capital spending running past $600 billion this year.

The bigger thing we are watching is Japan. The yen just hit a roughly 40-year low near 163 to the dollar, and speculative short positions are the largest since 2007. That is a coiled spring: if the Bank of Japan surprises hawkish at its July 30-31 meeting or intervenes, a 2024-style carry-trade unwind could force selling of exactly the most liquid assets, US mega-cap tech and semiconductors, which is TQQQ and SOXL. Our roughly 28% cash exists for precisely this scenario.

Next week is a gauntlet: the Fed decides July 29 alongside Microsoft and Meta earnings, then Amazon and Apple on the 30th and the Bank of Japan overnight. MSTR also reports around the 30th, now selling some bitcoin to raise cash. We are holding, not adding, into that. No trades. This is a model book and leveraged funds cut both ways fast, so size any exposure to your own risk, not ours.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, July 24, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.