High Risk

Recent Performance — Last 6 Sessions

Today = vs the Jul 22 published unit ($858). Live intraday marks (Thu, near the open ~7:40 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly. Jul MTD vs Jun 30 close ($1,003.19). Sessions before Jul 14 reflect the prior book; the current holdings were established at the Jul 14 open.

Baseline note (Jul 23): today’s move is measured against the Jul 22 published unit of $858 — the same figure shown in yesterday’s update, so the number you last saw carries forward with no basis step.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Jul 22 published unit. Since Rotation = vs the Jul 14 rotation fills (SOXL $179.62 / TQQQ $75.19 / MSTR $94.78), not the Jan 22 entry. Weight = % of unit. Live intraday marks (Thu, near the open ~7:40 MDT); official close-basis units published nightly.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

High Risk eased about 1% on Thursday, giving back a slice of this week's strong run. The split was the story: SOXL, our 3x semiconductor position, gained more than 3%, while TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100) fell about 3.6% and MSTR slipped about 4% alongside bitcoin.

The driver was Alphabet's results after Wednesday's close. Revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion, Google Cloud grew 82%, and operating income climbed 30% to $40.8 billion: a business getting more profitable, not less. At the same time it lifted full-year capital-spending guidance to $195-205 billion and, on a record $44.9 billion of quarterly capex, ran free cash flow negative for the first time at -$5.9 billion. The knee-jerk was to sell mega-cap tech (TQQQ) and bitcoin-linked MSTR on the spending headline. We read it the other way: a highly profitable company committing record dollars to AI infrastructure is a direct demand signal for the chips that build it, which is why semiconductors (SOXL) rallied while the index proxy fell. Negative free cash flow here is a choice to invest, not a sign of distress.

Cash discipline stays in place. We are still holding about 27% cash from the July 14 rotation. MSTR, which we added to in that rotation, is still up about 1% since the fill despite today's dip, while SOXL and TQQQ remain roughly 11% and 10% below our rotation levels after recovering much of Friday's forced-selling plunge. With three-times leverage cutting both ways and the Fed meeting July 28-29, that dry powder stays ready.

No trades. This is a model book, and leveraged funds move fast in both directions, so size any exposure to your own risk rather than ours.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, July 23, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.