Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | $1,714 | -1.4% | -4.9% |
| 2026-10-26 | $1,715 | +0.1% | -4.8% |
| 2026-10-27 (close)† | $1,752 | +2.1% | -2.8% |
| 2026-10-28 | $1,757 | +0.3% | -2.5% |
| 2026-10-30 ◀ Today | $1,704 | -3.0% | -5.5% |
How to read this table: Daily = the change from the row above. †Tuesday, Oct 27 was never published, so that row is Tuesday’s official close ($1,751.52), and Oct 28 is measured from it (+0.3%). Correction: our Oct 28 page showed a 10/27 row of $1,743, which matched neither a mark nor a close; it is replaced here. That page’s +2.4% for Oct 28 was measured from our Oct 26 mark across two sessions. Today = vs our Oct 28 mark ($1,756.83). That mark was published to the website on Wednesday but never emailed or texted, and Thursday, October 29 was not published at all. So measured against Friday Oct 23’s $1,713.83 — the last figure that actually reached you — the book is -0.6%. Live marks (Fri, 7:36 MDT, six minutes after the open, 9:36 Eastern); the daily move is measured against our Oct 28 (Wednesday) published mark, the most recent mark we published anywhere. Our last published mark was taken Wednesday at 9:34 Eastern, and Thursday’s official close of $1,757.87 landed 0.06% above it, so on the close basis today is -3.1%. October MTD is measured from Wednesday Sep 30’s official month-end close ($1,802.53). Today is the last trading day of October; the month locks at today’s official close and is reported with Monday’s letter.
Baseline note — Three numbers today, and the reason is our failure rather than the market’s. Four sessions in a row failed to reach you by email or text. Monday, October 26 and Wednesday, October 28 reached the website only. Tuesday, October 27 and Thursday, October 29 were not published at all — no letter, no page, nothing. So the last figure that actually reached you is still Friday Oct 23’s — three bases today, and all three print. Worst first, ordered by the numbers themselves. Measured from Thursday’s official close of $1,757.87 — the basis your own brokerage screen uses — it is -3.1%. Measured from our own Oct 28 published mark of $1,756.83 it is -3.0%. Measured against the $1,713.83 you were last actually sent, on Friday Oct 23, it is -0.6%. October is -5.5% and the year -11.3%. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $378.46 | -3.1% -3.9% vs close | +13.3% | 22.2% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $69.69 | +2.0% +1.4% vs close | +42.5% | 12.3% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $206.01 | -5.9% -3.6% vs close | +11.5% | 12.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $162.19 | +3.3% 0.0% vs close | -8.6% | 9.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $73.75 | -1.4% -1.0% vs close | -2.6% | 8.7% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $47.49 | +1.5% +0.1% vs close | -8.3% | 8.4% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $124.78 | -10.7% -11.9% vs close | -22.5% | 7.3% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $29.84 | +0.4% +1.3% vs close | -20.8% | 7.0% | WATCH 👀 |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $113.39 | -11.7% -8.8% vs close | -58.5% | 6.7% | WATCH 👀 |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $33.44 | -7.3% -6.4% vs close | -40.9% | 5.9% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs our Oct 28 mark, with the vs-Thursday’s-close reading beneath it. Since Entry = vs XLE $48.91 / ETN $334.04 / TMF $37.70 / PPA $177.46 / EWW $75.75 / NVDA $184.84 / INDA $51.80 / URA $56.56 / MSTR $160.98 / NUGT $272.99. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Fri, 7:36 MDT, six minutes after the open, 9:36 Eastern); the daily move is measured against our Oct 28 (Wednesday) published mark, the most recent mark we published anywhere. Friday Oct 23 remains the last mark emailed and texted. Both readings are printed, for the book and for every position. Where they differ, the close-basis figure is the one your own statement is measured from.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense31.7%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy24.8%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin19.4%
- 🌎 International17.0%
- 🏦 Long Bonds7.0%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 31.7% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $378.46 | $378.46 | 22.2% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $162.19 | $162.19 | 9.5% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 24.8% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $69.69 | $209.08 | 12.3% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $113.39 | $113.39 | 6.7% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $33.44 | $100.32 | 5.9% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 19.4% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $206.01 | $206.01 | 12.1% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $124.78 | $124.78 | 7.3% |
| 🌎 International — 17.0% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $73.75 | $147.51 | 8.7% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $47.49 | $142.47 | 8.4% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 7.0% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $29.84 | $119.36 | 7.0% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,704 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.8% | -3.5% | -5.5%▲ | — | -11.3% | |
▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,704 six minutes into the session, and it is a down morning, but a contained one. Worst first: against Thursday’s official close of $1,757.87 — the basis your brokerage screen uses — the book is -3.1%. Against our own Oct 28 published mark of $1,756.83 it is -3.0%. Against the $1,713.83 you were last actually sent, on Friday Oct 23, it is -0.6%. October is -5.5% month to date and the year is negative at -11.3%.
Before anything else, an apology we owe you. This is the first letter you have had from us since Friday, October 23. Monday Oct 26 and Wednesday Oct 28 were published to the website but never emailed or texted, and Tuesday Oct 27 and Thursday Oct 29 produced nothing at all. That is our failure and not a market event, and it is why three comparisons print above. Today they sit close together: Thursday’s close landed within 0.06% of our Wednesday mark, so almost all of today’s move happened this morning.
The morning belongs to three things: a crypto hack, a chip sell-off and a fall in gold. Binance reported Thursday evening a hack of about $6.3bn, the largest crypto theft on record, and said it had frozen about $3bn; bitcoin is about $77,131, down 3.6% over 24 hours. Strategy then reported third-quarter revenue of $125.4m, down 3% and below expectations, and announced the unexpected departure of its chief financial officer. MSTR is -10.7% against our Wednesday mark, -11.9% against Thursday’s close. It is one share and 7.3% of this unit, a deliberately small sleeve, so it costs -0.96 points here; hold it at its own close and Safe Growth would read -2.1% instead of -3.1%. The full argument is in the High Risk letter, where it is 39% of the book.
Chips are the second leg. Intel’s weak guidance on Thursday — soft PC demand and a setback from a fab explosion — dragged the group, with the semiconductor ETF -6.8% and AMD -9.7% as we mark, and Amazon -4.4% after its results. NVDA is -5.9% against our Wednesday mark, -3.6% against Thursday’s close. ETN, the largest position here at 22% of the unit, is -3.1% against our Wednesday mark, -3.9% against Thursday’s close and is the biggest single drag on the close basis at -0.86 points. Eaton has not reported yet: its third-quarter results are confirmed for Tuesday, November 3, before the open — the same day as the midterms. URA is -7.3% against our Wednesday mark, -6.4% against Thursday’s close. The third leg is gold: the gold ETF is -2.3% at our mark, and NUGT, a 2x gold-miners fund, is -11.7% against our Wednesday mark, -8.8% against Thursday’s close, costing -0.62 points.
And this is the day the rest of the book earned its place. XLE is +2.0% against our Wednesday mark, +1.4% against Thursday’s close, the best line here on the close basis. A tanker was hit by limpet mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil is on course for a fourth straight monthly gain. TMF, the long-bond fund we told you on Wednesday we are keeping, is +0.4% against our Wednesday mark, +1.3% against Thursday’s close as Treasuries catch a bid, the long-bond ETF +0.5%. INDA is +1.5% against our Wednesday mark, +0.1% against Thursday’s close, PPA is +3.3% against our Wednesday mark, 0.0% against Thursday’s close and EWW is -1.4% against our Wednesday mark, -1.0% against Thursday’s close. On a morning when the Nasdaq-100 ETF is -2.9%, energy, bonds, India and defence together held this book to roughly a third of that move. That is the job they are here to do.
Only one position changes direction between the two bases today: PPA is +3.3% against our Wednesday mark, 0.0% against Thursday’s close — it rose after our Wednesday mark and is flat this morning. The widest gaps between the two readings are NVDA at -5.9% against our Wednesday mark, -3.6% against Thursday’s close and NUGT at -11.7% against our Wednesday mark, -8.8% against Thursday’s close; in both cases the difference is the stretch between our Wednesday mark and Thursday’s close, which we never wrote to you about. Where the two bases differ, the close-basis figure is the one your statement is measured from.
Bottom line: Safe Growth is at $1,704 a unit, -3.1% against Thursday’s official close, -3.0% against our Oct 28 mark, and -0.6% against the Oct 23 figure you last received. October is -5.5% with one session left and the year is -11.3%. For context rather than drama: if October closes near here it will be the weakest October in our published table, below -3.3% in 2020, though 15 individual months in the record have been worse. October locks at today’s official close and we will report the final figure with Monday’s letter. Nothing was traded and nothing is proposed; every position is held unchanged. What we are watching: bitcoin after the Binance hack; whether the Hormuz incident escalates, since energy is carrying this book; Apple’s results after Monday’s close; Eaton’s third quarter on November 3 before the open, the first hard number on the largest position here; the midterms the same day; and the MSCI affected-company list on November 11, which touches the one MSTR share held here.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, October 30, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Sep monthly cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.