Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 21 mark ($1,772.29). That mark was published to the website on Wednesday; neither Wednesday nor Tuesday, October 20 was emailed or texted, so measured against Monday’s $1,762.69 — the last figure that actually reached you — the book is -1.4%. Live marks (Thu, 7:47 MDT, seventeen minutes after the open, 9:47 Eastern); the daily move is measured against our Oct 21 (Wednesday) published mark. Two sessions were published to the website but not emailed or texted — Tuesday, October 20 and Wednesday, October 21 — so the last figure that actually reached you is Monday’s — three bases today, and all three print. The direction matters, so read it before the numbers: Wednesday’s tape kept rising after we marked at 9:51 Eastern, so Wednesday’s official close landed above our mark. That makes today’s headline, which is measured against our mark, the more flattering of the two readings — your own screen measures from that official close and will look worse than our number. Both readings are printed, for the book and for every position. October MTD is measured from Wednesday Sep 30’s official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53). Wednesday’s official close was $1,784.29 — 0.68% above our mark — so on the close basis today is -2.6%.

Baseline note — please read this one, because there are three numbers today rather than the usual two. Two letters never reached you. We built, audited and published both Tuesday, October 20 and Wednesday, Oct 21 to the website, but for neither one did the email or the text go out. That is our failure, not a market event, and it means the last figure you actually hold is Monday’s $1,762.69. Here are all three, harshest first. Measured from Wednesday’s official close of $1,784.29 — the basis your own brokerage screen uses — the book is -2.6%. Measured against our own Oct 21 published mark of $1,772.29 it is -1.9%. Measured from the $1,762.69 you were last sent it is -1.4%. That third number is the mildest of the three, and we would rather be exact about why than let it read as good news: it is mildest because it starts from a lower point. Across the two sessions you did not receive this book rose to $1,784.29, and today it has given that back. -1.4% does not mean the week was quiet. The Today column in the position table is on the our-mark basis so it ties to the headline; the vs-close reading is printed beside it. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 21 mark, with the vs-Wednesday’s-close reading beneath it wherever the two differ. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Thu, 7:47 MDT, seventeen minutes after the open, 9:47 Eastern); the daily move is measured against our Oct 21 (Wednesday) published mark. Two sessions were published to the website but not emailed or texted — Tuesday, October 20 and Wednesday, October 21 — so the last figure that actually reached you is Monday’s — three bases today, and all three print. The direction matters, so read it before the numbers: Wednesday’s tape kept rising after we marked at 9:51 Eastern, so Wednesday’s official close landed above our mark. That makes today’s headline, which is measured against our mark, the more flattering of the two readings — your own screen measures from that official close and will look worse than our number. Both readings are printed, for the book and for every position. October MTD is measured from Wednesday Sep 30’s official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,738 seventeen minutes into the session. We will give you the harshest of the three readings first, because it is the one your own screen shows: measured from Wednesday’s official close of $1,784.29, this book is -2.6%. Against our own Oct 21 published mark it is -1.9%. And against the $1,762.69 you were last actually sent it is -1.4% — because two letters never went out, Tuesday, October 20 and Wednesday, both built and published to the website but neither emailed or texted. That was our failure and we are not going to bury it. Read the -1.4% with care rather than relief: it is the mildest number only because it starts lower. October is -3.6% month to date and the year remains negative at -9.5%. Three of the fourteen positions across both books are higher and eleven are lower.

The defining fact of this session is that gold and shares fell together, and government bonds were the only thing that worked. That matters more to this book than the size of any single move, because it shows the one position in here that is built to rise when equities fall doing exactly that — on Wednesday’s-close basis TMF is the only green line in this book. Gold futures are $4,079.60 at our mark, down 1.70% on Wednesday’s $4,150.00 settlement, and the miners fell considerably further than the metal — the unleveraged miners ETF is down 3.86%. So NUGT is -7.8% against our Wednesday mark, -8.1% against Wednesday’s close, which is close to twice the miners’ move and is exactly what a two-times fund is built to do. There is no company news in it and no change of view: the metal fell, the miners fell roughly twice as hard, and our leveraged sleeve fell roughly twice again. It stays on WATCH at -52.1% since entry. We are deliberately not calling this a crash or a record: a 1.7% day in gold is an ordinary bad day, and several of the pre-market write-ups quoting much larger falls were comparing against an intraday high rather than a settlement.

The other side of that trade is the one position in here that has cost us money all year, and today it paid. Treasuries rallied hard as money left equities: the ten-year yield is 5.023% at our mark against Wednesday’s 5.146%, about twelve basis points lower and the lowest level it has traded since September 23; the thirty-year is 5.337% against 5.439%, about ten basis points lower. So TMF is +2.6% against our Wednesday mark, +3.3% against Wednesday’s close and is the strongest thing in this book today on the close basis. One session does not repair it — it is still -22.7% since entry, which is the number that actually matters for it — and we closed the review of replacing it without trading. But it is worth saying plainly that the reason we held a long-duration position through a hiking cycle was for a day exactly like this one, and today it did its job. The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, five sessions away.

The largest holding in this book fell more than five percent today and the company said nothing at all. ETN is -4.7% against our Wednesday mark, -5.5% against Wednesday’s close, and at 21% of the unit it is the biggest single position here. Eaton has issued no news: it has a financial-calendar notice and nothing else, with third-quarter results due November 3, before the open and the call at 11am Eastern. What moved it is the same thing that moved the chip complex — money leaving the data-centre build-out theme as a whole. That is the honest description of what you own in the short run here: sentiment on the electrical side of the AI build-out, not Eaton’s own trading, which on the company’s last reported quarter was running at record sales with data-centre orders up sharply. November 3 is the first hard number on it, and it happens to be the same day as the midterm elections.

Crude rose and our energy sleeve did not, which is the day’s clearest example of why we print two bases. December WTI is $99.27 at our mark, up 2.18% on Wednesday’s $97.15 settlement. Against that, XLE is +0.3% against our Wednesday mark, -0.2% against Wednesday’s close — which is to say it reads slightly green against our mark and slightly red against Wednesday’s close, on a day the barrel is up over two percent. Energy equities simply did not follow crude in the first twenty minutes. XLE remains this book’s best long-run holding at +39.0% since entry. One caution we repeat because it caught us earlier this month: the front WTI contract rolled from November to December on October 20, so a continuous crude chart still shows a step down that no barrel actually took. We quote the December contract on both days so the comparison is like for like.

Now the equity tape, which was narrow and ugly underneath a modest-looking headline. At our 9:47 Eastern mark the Dow is down only 0.30% and the S&P 500 0.98%, but the Nasdaq-100 is 1.85% lower and the semiconductor index 4.15% lower. The damage is concentrated in exactly one theme. NVDA is -1.2% against our Wednesday mark, -2.2% against Wednesday’s close and remains +17.5% since entry; its single share here is a far smaller exposure than the chip headlines imply, and the reason the complex fell today is set out in the High Risk letter, because that is the book it actually damages. Volatility rose but not dramatically — the VIX is 18.28 against 16.68 — which tells you this was a rotation out of one crowded theme rather than broad fear.

The rest of the detail, both bases throughout. URA is -2.6% against our Wednesday mark, -2.4% against Wednesday’s close, giving back part of the uranium run and still -38.7% since entry, the weakest holding here. PPA is -1.4% against our Wednesday mark, -0.6% against Wednesday’s close; EWW is -0.3% against our Wednesday mark, -0.7% against Wednesday’s close and INDA is -0.3% against our Wednesday mark, -0.3% against Wednesday’s close, the two emerging-market sleeves doing what they are here to do and barely moving on a bad morning for American technology. The single MSTR share here is 0.0% against our Wednesday mark, -4.2% against Wednesday’s close, which matters far more to the other book than to this one. Two positions flip sign between the two bases today, so read the table carefully. XLE is +0.3% against our Wednesday mark, -0.2% against Wednesday’s close and MSTR is 0.0% against our Wednesday mark, -4.2% against Wednesday’s close. Where the two bases disagree, the close-basis figure is the one your own statement is measured from.

Bottom line: Safe Growth is at $1,738 a unit, and all three readings rather than the convenient one: -2.6% against Wednesday’s official close, -1.9% against our own Oct 21 mark, and -1.4% against the $1,762.69 you were last sent, with October -3.6% and the year -9.5%. Nothing was traded and nothing is proposed: our review of replacing TMF and NUGT is closed, we are holding both and every other position unchanged, and no trade was made at any point during that review. What we are watching: whether Treasuries keep acting as the hedge they acted as today, which is the single thing that would most change the risk in this book; the Federal Reserve on October 27–28; Eaton’s third-quarter results on November 3, the first hard number on the largest position here and the same day as the midterms; the cost of capital for the AI build-out, which is the subject of the High Risk letter and the thing that has driven this whole month; and the MSCI affected-company list on November 11, which touches the one MSTR share held here.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Thursday, October 22, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.