Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 5 Sessions

Today = vs our Oct 20 mark ($1,735.75). That mark was published to the website on Tuesday; Tuesday was not emailed or texted, so measured against Monday’s $1,762.69 — the last figure that actually reached you — the book is +0.5%. Live marks (Wed, 7:51 MDT, twenty-one minutes after the open, 9:51 Eastern); the daily move is measured against our Oct 20 (Tuesday) published mark. Tuesday was published to the website but was not emailed or texted, so the last figure that actually reached you is Monday’s — three bases today, and all three print. The direction matters, so read it before the numbers: Tuesday’s tape kept rising after we marked at 9:42 Eastern, so Tuesday’s official close landed above our mark. That makes today’s headline, which is measured against our mark, the more flattering of the two readings — your own screen measures from that official close and will look worse than our number. Both readings are printed, for the book and for every position. October MTD is measured from Wednesday Sep 30’s official month-end close. October MTD vs Sep 30 close ($1,802.53). Tuesday’s official close was $1,752.98 — 0.99% above our mark — so on the close basis today is +1.1%.

Baseline note — please read this one, because there are three numbers today rather than the usual two, and the one that matters to you is the third. Tuesday never reached you. We built it, audited it and published it to the website, but the email and the text were never sent. That is our failure, not a market event, and it means the last figure you actually hold is Monday’s $1,762.69. So: today’s headline +2.1% is measured against our Oct 20 published mark of $1,735.75; Tuesday’s official close was $1,752.98, 0.99% above that mark, and from there the book is +1.1%; and measured from the $1,762.69 you were last sent, the book is +0.5%. That third figure is the honest answer to ‘how has my money done since I last heard from you’, and it is the smallest of the three. We are not going to lead with the biggest one. The Today column in the position table is on the our-mark basis so it ties to the headline; the vs-close reading is printed beside it. October MTD is measured against the Sep 30 official month-end close of $1,803. September is locked closed in the monthly table at -3.47%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs our Oct 20 mark, with the vs-Tuesday’s-close reading beneath it wherever the two differ. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live marks (Wed, 7:51 MDT, twenty-one minutes after the open, 9:51 Eastern); the daily move is measured against our Oct 20 (Tuesday) published mark. Tuesday was published to the website but was not emailed or texted, so the last figure that actually reached you is Monday’s — three bases today, and all three print. The direction matters, so read it before the numbers: Tuesday’s tape kept rising after we marked at 9:42 Eastern, so Tuesday’s official close landed above our mark. That makes today’s headline, which is measured against our mark, the more flattering of the two readings — your own screen measures from that official close and will look worse than our number. Both readings are printed, for the book and for every position. October MTD is measured from Wednesday Sep 30’s official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July, August and September 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Sep cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,772 twenty-one minutes into the session, +2.1% against our Oct 20 mark and +1.1% against Tuesday’s official close of $1,752.98. Before either of those, the number that actually applies to you. Tuesday’s letter was built, audited and published to the website, but it was not emailed or texted — our failure, not a market event — so the last figure that reached you is Monday’s $1,762.69, and measured from there this book is +0.5%. That is the smallest of the three readings and it is the one we would want you to use. October is -1.7% month to date against -3.7% on Tuesday, and the year remains negative at -7.7%.

What turned the tape was a demand number, and it arrived from an unglamorous place. Super Micro, which assembles the servers that Nvidia and AMD silicon goes into, pre-announced its September-quarter revenue on Tuesday evening at $18.5 to $19.5 billion against its own prior guidance of $14.5 to $15.5 billion — it beat its own forecast by roughly a quarter, and raised gross margin guidance to 12.0–12.5% from 10.4–10.8%. We read that out of the company’s own 8-K rather than a summary of it, and the company attributes the revenue to ‘increased demand for AI platforms’. Super Micro shares are up about 11% at our mark, having been quoted nearer 13% before the bell. Alongside it, SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion against roughly $12.72 billion expected, up 161%, with the segment it now calls Super Intelligence at $7.56 billion against $813 million a year ago — a ninefold increase — and a net profit of $4.4 billion against a billion-dollar loss a year earlier. Seoul took it first: the Kospi closed 5,735.66, up 3.29%, with Samsung up 5.67% and SK Hynix 5.81%. We checked that close against Tuesday’s 5,552.74 and the arithmetic ties.

Now the part that matters for this book, and it is a caution rather than a celebration. The broad American market did not move the way our headline suggests: at our 9:51 Eastern mark the S&P 500 is up about 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.7%, and the semiconductor index 1.1%. Those are ordinary numbers. Our +2.1% is larger than all of them, and the reason is not that we own something cleverer — it is that our Tuesday mark was taken on a weak morning, so we are measuring from a dip. That is exactly why the +0.5% figure against what you were last sent is the honest one, and why we put it first. Twelve of the fourteen positions across both books are higher and two are lower.

The largest holding in this book rose about three and a half percent today on no company news, which is the same reason it fell about the same Tuesday on no company news. ETN is +3.5% against our Tuesday mark, +2.2% against Tuesday’s close and it is the biggest single position at 22% of the unit. Eaton has still issued nothing but a financial-calendar notice: third-quarter results on November 3, before the open, with the call at 11am Eastern. So in two sessions the largest thing we own has travelled down 4.1% and back up 3.6% against our own marks while the company said nothing at all. That is worth naming plainly, because it tells you what you are actually exposed to in the short run — sentiment on the data-centre electrical theme, not Eaton’s trading. Note too that 3M, which we pointed to Tuesday as evidence money was rotating within the theme rather than leaving it, is essentially flat today (about +0.2%). One session does not validate or refute that read; November 3 will give us a real number on the position itself.

Oil moved again, and the comparison has to be made carefully for the second day running. Crude rose hard overnight and had given almost all of it back by the time we marked. December Brent reached $111.11 at 6:10 Eastern and was $108.17 at our mark, down 0.6% on Tuesday’s $108.79 settlement; December WTI touched $100.26 and was $97.08, down 0.8% on its own $97.82 settlement. We are quoting the mark rather than the high because the high is what the pre-market write-ups quoted and it is not where the barrel was when we priced this book. There is a second trap underneath that one: the front month rolled from November to December Tuesday, so a continuous WTI chart shows roughly minus four percent today when the December barrel itself moved less than one — the November contract we quoted Tuesday simply stopped existing. Compare like with like or the number is fiction. So XLE is +0.1% against our Tuesday mark, -0.3% against Tuesday’s close on a crude tape that is fractionally lower, which is unremarkable rather than the divergence it would have looked like against the overnight high. It stays this book’s best long-run holding at +38.6% since entry. Gold is a touch firmer and NUGT is +0.4% against our Tuesday mark, +0.9% against Tuesday’s close, staying on WATCH at -48.1% since entry.

Rates did almost nothing today, and that is the point worth making about TMF. The thirty-year is around 5.40% and the ten-year 5.09%, each about three basis points below where they finished Tuesday (5.43% and 5.12%); the unleveraged long-bond ETF is up only about 0.4%. So TMF is +0.9% against our Tuesday mark, +1.2% against Tuesday’s close on a flat bond tape rather than on any rally — Tuesday’s housing-driven bid did not extend, it simply held. It remains on WATCH and is still -24.6% since entry, which is the number that matters for it rather than any single morning. The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28; prediction markets were pricing a low-teens chance of a hike when we checked, quoted as a market price and not our forecast.

The rest of the detail, both bases throughout. NVDA is +3.1% against our Tuesday mark, +1.5% against Tuesday’s close and +18.9% since entry; URA is +2.5% against our Tuesday mark, +1.3% against Tuesday’s close; PPA is +1.1% against our Tuesday mark, +1.2% against Tuesday’s close; EWW is -0.3% against our Tuesday mark, -0.4% against Tuesday’s close and INDA is -0.7% against our Tuesday mark, -1.0% against Tuesday’s close, the two emerging-market sleeves lagging a risk-on morning exactly as they cushioned the risk-off ones; and the single MSTR share here is +8.8% against our Tuesday mark, +3.0% against Tuesday’s close, which matters far more to the other book than to this one. One position flip sign between the two bases today, so read the table carefully. XLE is +0.1% against our Tuesday mark, -0.3% against Tuesday’s close. Where the two bases disagree, the close-basis figure is the one your own statement is measured from.

Bottom line: Safe Growth is at $1,772 a unit — and we will give you all three readings rather than pick the flattering one: +0.5% against the $1,762.69 you were last sent, +1.1% against Tuesday’s official close, +2.1% against our own Oct 20 mark, with October -1.7% and the year -7.7%. Nothing was traded and nothing is proposed: our review of replacing TMF and NUGT is closed, we are holding both and every other position unchanged, and no trade was made at any point during that review. What we are watching: whether one strong demand quarter changes the cost of capital for the AI build-out, which is the subject of the High Risk letter and the thing that has actually been driving this month; Eaton’s third-quarter results on November 3, the first hard number on the largest position here; whether crude can hold a bid at all, having given back a two percent overnight gain before our mark; the Federal Reserve on October 27–28; the MSCI affected-company list on November 11, which touches the one MSTR share here; and the midterms on November 3.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.