Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | $1,913 | +1.3% | +2.5% |
| 2026-09-09 | $1,901 | -0.6% | +1.8% |
| 2026-09-10 | $1,847 | -2.9% | -1.1% |
| 2026-09-11 ◀ Today | $1,862 | +0.8% | -0.3% |
Today = vs the Sep 10 published unit ($1,847). Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~8:00 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Sep 10) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,867.39).
Baseline note (Sep 11): today’s move is measured against the Sep 10 published update ($1,847). September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,867. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +8.84%.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $418.95 | +1.6% | +25.4% | 22.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $219.52 | -0.4% | +18.8% | 11.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $64.92 | -1.3% | +32.7% | 10.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $187.60 | +5.4% | -31.3% | 10.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $161.92 | +0.7% | -8.8% | 8.7% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $75.55 | +0.2% | -0.3% | 8.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $48.43 | +0.4% | -6.5% | 7.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $44.69 | -1.8% | -21.0% | 7.2% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $129.77 | +1.2% | -19.4% | 7.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $29.87 | +1.2% | -20.8% | 6.4% | WATCH 👀 |
Today = vs the Sep 10 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Fri, near the open ~8:00 MDT); daily move is vs Thursday's (Sep 10) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense31.2%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy27.7%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin18.8%
- 🌎 International15.9%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.4%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 31.2% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $418.95 | $418.95 | 22.5% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $161.92 | $161.92 | 8.7% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 27.7% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $64.92 | $194.77 | 10.5% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $187.60 | $187.60 | 10.1% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $44.69 | $134.07 | 7.2% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 18.8% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $219.52 | $219.52 | 11.8% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $129.77 | $129.77 | 7.0% |
| 🌎 International — 15.9% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $75.55 | $151.10 | 8.1% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $48.43 | $145.29 | 7.8% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.4% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $29.87 | $119.48 | 6.4% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,862 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.8% | -0.3%▲ | — | -3.0% | ||
▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,862 near the open, +0.8% versus Thursday's published update and -0.3% for September (August locked closed at +8.84%, in the track record table below). Today's CPI print has two layers worth knowing. Headline inflation was 3.4% year-over-year (above the 3.3% forecast), driven mostly by gasoline. But core CPI — the Fed's cleaner read on underlying inflation, stripping out food and energy — actually fell to 2.4% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2021.
So why did rate-hike odds for Sep 16 jump from ~70% to as high as 90%? Core still came in at 0.29% month-over-month, just above the 0.25% line Fed leadership had flagged as the hike/hold threshold — a rounding error tipped the scale. The deeper reason the Fed can hike into an improving CPI headline: its actual target gauge, core PCE, is running near 3.3%, nearly a full point hotter than core CPI, because non-shelter services are still re-accelerating even as housing costs cool. Markets seem to be reading a near-certain, credible hike as a resolved question rather than a fresh scare — bond strategist Jim Bianco put it well: traders "can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking." That's on top of an oil/diesel shock that hasn't let up: diesel hit a record $6.06/gallon, Brent traded as high as ~$110 overnight before easing to ~$104, and Houthi forces are now threatening a second shipping chokepoint (Bab el-Mandeb) alongside the Strait of Hormuz.
NUGT (+5.4%) leads the book by a wide margin — gold rallying even as hike odds spike, which is a little counterintuitive and we're not going to force a tidy explanation for it. XLE (-1.3%) and URA (-1.8%) are the only red names, an inversion of the pattern from recent sessions where energy led. TMF (+1.2%) is green too, consistent with bonds trading the relief of a resolved Fed decision rather than the hawkish outcome itself. No trade before this update.
Bottom line: SG is up +0.8% today on the last inflation read before Wednesday's Fed decision — a headline that looked hot, a core number that's actually the best in five years, and a Fed still cornered by the gap between what it targets (PCE) and what made today's headlines (CPI).
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Friday, September 11, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Aug monthly cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.