Safe Growth

Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions

Today = vs the Sep 2 published unit ($1,888). Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~8:00 MDT); daily move is vs Friday's (Sep 4) published update, the last trading session before the Labor Day holiday; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,867.39).

Baseline note (Sep 8): today’s move is measured against the Sep 4 published update ($1,888), the last session before Labor Day. September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,867. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +8.84%.

Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight

Today = vs the Sep 2 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~8:00 MDT); daily move is vs Friday's (Sep 4) published update, the last trading session before the Labor Day holiday; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.

Portfolio Allocation by Category

Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)

▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.

Calculate Your Position Size

Safe Growth is marked at $1,913 near the open, +1.3% versus Friday's published update (the last session before Labor Day) and +2.5% for September (August locked closed at +8.84%, in the track record table below). Two distinct stories are running today, and they're mostly separate from each other.

First, the Middle East: Iran escalated further over the long weekend rather than cooling off. The US and Iran traded strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco facilities were reportedly hit, and oil hit a six-week high as US Centcom redirected, disabled, or boarded dozens of commercial vessels enforcing a blockade. The US has ruled out Iran talks until the Hormuz attacks stop — unlike the economic data below, this has moved in one direction for two straight weeks, not oscillated. ETN (+5.3%) and URA (+4.6%) lead the book on that energy-driven strength, while TMF (-0.2%) and MSTR (-1.6%) are both lower.

Second, the data itself has been genuinely contradictory, not just noisy: late-August ISM came in soft, Wednesday's ADP private-payrolls miss (+38,000 vs +47,000 expected) fueled hopes the labor market was cooling, and then Friday's official BLS report surged the opposite way (+162,000 vs a 50-58,000 consensus). That contradiction is still unresolved, and Friday's CPI print (Sep 11) is the last hard data before the Sep 16 decision — the Fed goes into blackout this weekend, so there's no Fed speaker left to shape the read either way. If CPI comes in hot too, that's jobs, energy, and prices all pointing the same direction with nobody left to push back before the meeting.

No trade before this update. TMF stays on our watch list; the hike case has gotten more concrete from two independent directions at once, not less.

Bottom line: SG is up +1.3% today on an oil-driven, energy-led session, with Friday's CPI now the real pivot point for whether the Sep 16 hike case holds or the softer signals from two weeks ago reassert themselves.

Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History

Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.

Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.