Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | $1,887 | -0.1% | +10.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | $1,916 | +1.5% | +11.6% |
| 2026-08-28 | $1,920 | +0.2% | +11.9% |
| 2026-09-01 ◀ Today | $1,838 | -0.9% | -1.6% |
Today = vs the Aug 31 published unit ($1,855). Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~8:00 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Aug 31) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close. September MTD vs Aug 31 close ($1,867.39).
Baseline note (Sep 1): today’s move is measured against the Aug 31 published update ($1,855); September MTD is measured against the Aug 31 official month-end close of $1,867. August is locked closed in the monthly table at +8.84%.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $391.69 | -2.9% | +17.3% | 21.3% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $217.08 | -0.8% | +17.4% | 11.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $64.54 | +0.8% | +32.0% | 10.5% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $181.00 | -2.2% | -33.7% | 9.8% | HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $166.47 | -0.6% | -6.2% | 9.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $77.08 | +1.2% | +1.8% | 8.4% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $49.76 | -0.1% | -4.0% | 8.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $44.13 | -3.3% | -22.0% | 7.2% | HOLD ✅ |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $128.82 | +1.5% | -20.0% | 7.0% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $30.82 | +0.6% | -18.3% | 6.7% | WATCH 👀 |
Today = vs the Aug 31 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Tue, near the open ~8:00 MDT); daily move is vs Monday's (Aug 31) published update; September MTD starts from Monday Aug 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense30.4%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy27.6%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin18.8%
- 🌎 International16.5%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.7%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 30.4% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $391.69 | $391.69 | 21.3% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $166.47 | $166.47 | 9.1% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 27.6% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $64.54 | $193.62 | 10.5% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $181.00 | $181.00 | 9.8% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $44.13 | $132.41 | 7.2% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 18.8% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $217.08 | $217.08 | 11.8% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $128.82 | $128.82 | 7.0% |
| 🌎 International — 16.5% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $77.08 | $154.15 | 8.4% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $49.76 | $149.27 | 8.1% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.7% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $30.82 | $123.26 | 6.7% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,838 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.8% | -1.6%▲ | — | -4.3% | ||
▲ Current month through today; July and August 2026 are locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Aug cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,838 near the open, -0.9% versus Monday's published update. August closed out at +8.84% for the month (locked in the track record table below) and September opens -1.6%. Today the market's reaction function has genuinely flipped: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings land at 10am ET, and with Fed Chair Warsh already signaling the Fed may need to hike and the Fed's focus shifted squarely to inflation over employment, a strong print now reads as bad news for risk assets instead of good — the opposite of how this data has traded most of the year.
Iran did not calm down over the weekend — it got worse. Monday's ceasefire-framework story collapsed by the afternoon: the US struck Iranian sites in the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning's reporting flags fresh escalation fears, with Citi noting oil stocks could still fall roughly 900 million barrels even if a truce eventually holds. MSTR (+1.5%) leads the book this morning, while XLE (+0.8%) keeps tracking that oil-risk premium — the rest of the book is calmer than Monday's rout, with NUGT stabilizing/mean-reverting off yesterday's steep drop rather than staging a new rally, since the hawkish backdrop itself hasn't changed.
TMF (+0.6%) stays on our watch list — the hawkish tilt from Friday directly undercuts its rate-cut thesis. No trade before this update.
Bottom line: SG is down -0.9% today as September opens with the market genuinely uncertain how to trade good economic data for the first time in a while. August's jobs report Friday is the week's real catalyst, the last major print before the Sep 16 FOMC.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Aug monthly cells are locked closed from official month-end closes; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.