Recent Performance — Last 4 Sessions
| Date | Unit Value | Daily | Month MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | $1,865 | -1.3% | +8.7% |
| 2026-08-14 | $1,866 | 0.0% | +8.8% |
| 2026-08-18 | $1,845 | -1.1% | +7.5% |
| 2026-08-19 ◀ Today | $1,853 | +0.4% | +8.0% |
Today = vs the Aug 18 published unit ($1,845). Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:33 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Aug 18) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close. August MTD vs Jul 31 close ($1,715.73).
Baseline note (Aug 19): today’s move is measured against the Aug 18 published update ($1,845); August MTD is measured against the Jul 31 official month-end close of $1,716. July is locked closed in the monthly table.
Position Scoreboard — Sorted by Portfolio Weight
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Today | Since Entry | Weight | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETN | Infrastructure | $428.44 | -2.5% | +28.3% | 23.1% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NVDA | AI Chips | $219.96 | -0.5% | +19.0% | 11.9% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| XLE | Energy/Oil | $63.97 | +0.7% | +30.8% | 10.4% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| PPA | Defense ETF | $181.48 | -0.3% | +2.3% | 9.8% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | $177.86 | +8.0% | -34.9% | 9.6% | HOLD ✅ |
| EWW | Mexico ETF | $75.16 | +0.3% | -0.8% | 8.1% | HOLD ✅ |
| INDA | India ETF | $49.54 | +0.1% | -4.4% | 8.0% | STRONG HOLD ✅ |
| URA | Uranium ETF | $44.29 | -0.5% | -21.7% | 7.2% | HOLD ✅ |
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | $31.36 | +5.4% | -16.8% | 6.8% | WATCH 👀 |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | $95.95 | -0.2% | -40.4% | 5.2% | HOLD ✅ |
Today = vs the Aug 18 published unit. Since Entry = vs Jan 22, 2026. Weight = % of unit. Live opening marks (Wed, near the open ~7:33 MDT); daily move is vs Tuesday's (Aug 18) published update; August MTD starts from Friday Jul 31's official month-end close.
Portfolio Allocation by Category
- 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense32.9%
- ⛏️ Metals & Energy27.1%
- 🤖 AI & Bitcoin17.1%
- 🌎 International16.1%
- 🏦 Long Bonds6.8%
| Ticker | Sector | Shares | Price | $/Unit | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏗️ Infrastructure & Defense — 32.9% | |||||
| ETN | Infrastructure | 1 | $428.44 | $428.44 | 23.1% |
| PPA | Defense ETF | 1 | $181.48 | $181.48 | 9.8% |
| ⛏️ Metals & Energy — 27.1% | |||||
| XLE | Energy/Oil | 3 | $63.97 | $191.91 | 10.4% |
| NUGT | 2x Gold Miners | 1 | $177.86 | $177.86 | 9.6% |
| URA | Uranium ETF | 3 | $44.29 | $132.87 | 7.2% |
| 🤖 AI & Bitcoin — 17.1% | |||||
| NVDA | AI Chips | 1 | $219.96 | $219.96 | 11.9% |
| MSTR | Bitcoin | 1 | $95.95 | $95.95 | 5.2% |
| 🌎 International — 16.1% | |||||
| EWW | Mexico ETF | 2 | $75.16 | $150.32 | 8.1% |
| INDA | India ETF | 3 | $49.54 | $148.62 | 8.0% |
| 🏦 Long Bonds — 6.8% | |||||
| TMF | 3x Long Bonds | 4 | $31.36 | $125.42 | 6.8% |
| TOTAL UNIT VALUE | $1,853 | 100% | |||
Live Track Record — Since January 22, 2026 (Actual)
| Yr | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | +7.6 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +5.5 | +1.5 | +3.6 | -1.6 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.5 | 25.3% |
| 20 | +2.5 | -3.0 | -6.2 | -0.7 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +8.2 | +9.1 | -11.4 | -3.3 | +0.1 | +7.3 | 4.1% |
| 21 | +4.7 | +1.3 | -7.9 | +10.6 | -4.4 | +9.7 | -5.1 | +4.0 | -4.3 | +19.8 | +0.5 | +1.7 | 25.8% |
| 22 | +1.5 | -6.2 | +1.7 | -6.2 | -1.2 | -18.7 | +13.7 | +1.7 | -22.0 | +31.0 | +11.6 | +1.8 | -25.8% |
| 23 | +12.3 | -12.4 | +9.8 | -1.8 | -13.9 | +13.2 | +0.2 | -4.4 | -10.8 | +0.7 | +13.2 | +14.0 | 14.7% |
| 24 | +1.4 | +14.1 | +9.3 | +5.1 | +8.8 | -8.3 | +1.1 | -3.3 | +4.5 | -0.7 | +15.0 | -10.1 | 39.0% |
| 25 | +5.8 | -2.5 | -4.3 | +1.8 | +4.9 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -1.4 | +5.7 | +0.1 | -8.7 | -2.1 | 7.4% |
| 26 | +3%* | -3%* | -8%* | +10.0% | -3.5% | -6.3% | -1.3% | +8.0%▲ | — | -3.5% | |||
▲ Current month through today; July 2026 is locked closed; return measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. * Jan–Mar 2026 are estimated partial-period returns carried from our May 2026 updates; they predate our daily archive (begins 15 April 2026) and are shown as estimates, not as-published daily marks. Apr–Jun cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; close-basis restatement pending the anchor review. No backtests, no hypotheticals. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued.
Safe Growth is marked at $1,853 near the open, +0.4% versus Tuesday's published update and +8.0% for August. The Fed is in focus today: minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting are due at 2pm ET this afternoon (not yet released as we publish). That meeting was a 9-3 hold with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a hike — the first unified three-way hike dissent since 2016 — but the market has since marked down the odds of a September hike from roughly two-thirds to about 31% on cooler data the Committee hadn't seen yet, so today's minutes will read as a hawkish snapshot of a moment that's already passed.
Tuesday's 30-year Treasury yield spike to roughly 5.33% — its highest since 2007 — is unwinding sharply this morning, with the bond market rallying hard and gold extending its bid. We don't have a single confirmed headline pinning down today's specific move; it reads as a combination of Tuesday's spike being overdone and positioning ahead of this afternoon's minutes.
TMF (+5.4%) and NUGT (+8.0%) are leading the book by a wide margin on the yield reversal and gold rally, with EWW, INDA and XLE modestly higher on the same relief. ETN (-2.5%) is the lone laggard, and NVDA, URA and MSTR are roughly flat to slightly softer.
Bottom line: no trade before this update. SG is up +0.4% as Tuesday's yield spike reverses hard and gold extends its bid — a clean read-through from the bond and gold sleeves of the book, not a single-stock story. Worth watching whether this yield relief holds once markets actually see this afternoon's FOMC minutes.
Portfolio Builder | Market Update | Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Risk Disclosure
Safe Growth is not an unleveraged book: it holds TMF (3x long Treasuries) and NUGT (2x gold miners). Leveraged ETFs reset daily and can lose value over time even when the underlying index is flat or higher. MSTR carries leverage and direct bitcoin exposure. This is our model book, shared for transparency — it is not individualized investment advice, and position sizing reflects our risk tolerance, not yours. Every performance figure on this page is an actual, live result measured from the Jan 22, 2026 entry. Apr–Jun monthly cells are as-published marks; July is locked closed from the Jul 31 month-end close; a close-basis restatement is pending the anchor review. Our published daily archive begins 15 April 2026; Jan–Mar 2026 monthly cells are estimated partial-period returns (marked *) carried from our May 2026 updates, shown as estimates rather than as-published daily marks. We show no backtested or hypothetical returns. Units are price-return; dividends are not accrued. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data claims are dated as of publication.
Trade Ledger — Entry & Exit History
Every position we open and close, newest first. Realized P/L on closes is marked against the original entry price.
| Ticker | Action | Price | Sh/Unit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 22, 2026 · Initial entries (10) | ||||
| XLE · Energy | BUY | $48.91 | 3 | Open |
| ETN · Electrical/AI | BUY | $334.04 | 1 | Open |
| TMF · 20Y Treasury | BUY | $37.70 | 4 | Open |
| PPA · Defense | BUY | $177.46 | 1 | Open |
| EWW · Mexico | BUY | $75.75 | 2 | Open |
| NVDA · AI Chips | BUY | $184.84 | 1 | Open |
| INDA · India | BUY | $51.80 | 3 | Open |
| URA · Uranium | BUY | $56.56 | 3 | Open |
| MSTR · Bitcoin | BUY | $160.98 | 1 | Open |
| NUGT · 2x Gold Miners | BUY | $272.99 | 1 | Open |
Entry prices verified against the Jan 22, 2026 cost basis. “Open” = still held today. An entry marked “Closed <date>” was exited in that rotation — its realized result is shown on the CLOSE row for that date. This ledger builds our public track record going forward.
Portfolio Builder | portfoliobuilder.io
This is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.